Thread by @Teri_Kanefield

(short thread)

Hi, Poli,

I am attaching a thread in the next tweet where I talk about impeachment.

While the GOP held the House, I thought impeachment proceedings were a bad idea. It was clear from the Nunes shenanigans that the truth would not have come out.

https://twitter.com/polipsych101/status/1089271344817041409

1/ Moreover, the midterms would have been about whether to impeach--without the voters actually having the truth, which could have helped Trump.

https://twitter.com/Teri_Kanefield/status/1087018811784450048

Recall, the procedure is that the House impeaches, which requires a majority.
Then the Senate holds a trial.

2/ Removal requires 2/3 of the Senate. Let's assume that a trial uncovers clear evidence of impeachable crimes.
The Senate then votes. I think it's clear that there will not be enough votes for removal.

But the vote itself will splinter the pro-Trump contingency.

3/ We saw this play out in the Shutdown debacle. The Ann Coulter faction was admonishing Trump to hold out and not be a wimp. Others knew the shutdown was actually hurting people. Trump's base split.

GOP Senators will find themselves stuck between two bad options:

4/ Option 1: Vote to remove, and enrage the Trump die-hards.
Option 2: Vote not to remove and make it clear that they are enabling lawbreaking.

So far, the strength of the GOP has been the cohesiveness.
I see a Senate vote breaking that cohesiveness by forcing a hard choice.