Thread by @OpenEurope

Former UK Perm. Rep to the EU Ivan Rogers tells @LordsEUCom that the UK-EU future relationship negotiations will be "one of the most difficult negotiations in history" - not because of lack of goodwill but because it will be "between partners who are seeking to get further apart"

Rodgers: Even after negotiation, the ratification process across the EU will likely take "another 18 months to 2 years" - though parts could be provisionally applied. As such, it is "blindingly obvious" that it will take until "early/mid 2020s at best" until trade deal concluded

Rodgers: "There is a widespread view in European capitals that the risk of a No Deal exit is above 50%... the accident risk is rising all the time, and you can hear and feel that anxiety across the UK private sector now."

Rogers: "There has been a hardening of [EU] attitudes undoubtedly in the last few weeks post Brady and Malthouse... and that comes from some of our best friends in Northern Europe, not just predictable capitals"

Rogers: both sides of the Channel are right to prepare for a No Deal outcome, but there is a danger that it "develops a momentum of its own" and "becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy"

Rogers: There is impetus in Europe behind getting the Withdrawal Agreement through - "the people I know best want it done, want Britain out of the EU - they certainly don't want Britain to stay and reverse, in my experience"

Rogers: A unilateral exit mechanism or a hard time limit are non-starters as far as the EU is concerned... but a codicil which "amplifies, explains or expands" on the Withdrawal Agreement is more possible

Rogers: not all EU member states are in the same place on the question of Article 50 extension

Rogers: EU institutions were "naive" to assume the Northern Irish question could be treated as a set of "technocratic" issues rather than a "courts, sovereignty and identity question." Says this explains failure of "de-dramatisation" strategy

Rogers: the Malthouse Compromise "is not going to work" - "if the technology existed, it would be in operation on the Norway-Sweden border, which is after all a border between an EU member and an EEA member"

Rogers: in a No Deal scenario, if there is no hard border on island of Ireland, "they're going to have to have a hard border somewhere else - in the Irish Sea or... between Ireland and the rest of the EU." Adds, "I don't think people have thought hard enough about this" in the EU

Rogers: The EU26 will always back a member state against a third country... "for small member states, this is a really vital indication of whether the [EU] institutions will, in extremis, up against major pressure from a big player, back them... this is an exemplary case"

Rogers: The EU may think a permanent customs union is the best economic option for the UK in the medium-term, but "they're not intent on forcing us to stay in a customs union against our will"

Rogers on EU views on Article 50 extension:
- If deal has passed and it is a technical extension, no problem
- If deal still falling short by a long way, some would be reluctant - but on balance would still favour extension. No Deal in June slightly better than No Deal in March

Rogers: There is talk in some "very important" capitals of a much longer extension - belief that political chaos in the UK requires it. But difficult to know whether this is "tactical talk" - floating long extension as only alternative to the deal to focus minds of MPs