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THREAD: TMs Kamakazi End Game

She's the sacrificial lamb tasked w/ scaring parliament into either accepting a BRINO or relinquishing the gov of blame for a reversal of brexit (via the Cooper amendment).

They won't allow no-deal. It'd split the Tories & unlock socialism. 1/
They know theres only 2 ways to avoid no deal - bring down May w/ a GE or hold a rigged PV. They obvs want PV.

May had to promise to quit just to win a VoC. Tory party members r overwhelmingly leavers but Tory MPs r majority remain. They'll stop at nothing to steal the vote. 2/
Project Fear bombarded us w/ propaganda claiming ANY sort of brexit is armageddon.

JCs soft brexit CU plan is roughly equivalent to the EEA. Are Norway or Switzerland floundering? The remain obsessed establishment overplayed its hand. Their focus is to prevent a JC gov. 3/
Some are frustrated w/ JCs middle ground approach. They know he'd prefer to fully sever ties w/ the neoliberal, austerity enabling, Trump fluffing, socialism stifling EU.
But JC is just 1 man in opposition. He could not have simple stated his preference & seen it materialise. 4/
JC knew parliament would implode itself before letting us leave on WTO. He knew the establishment would drown out any argument he made for it. He democratised Labour & they supported remain & reform. Since the result he's strived to get SOME sort of brexit over the line. 5/
He had to adopt a position that could give him as much credibly as possible within this incredible House. A new CU solves the backstop & enables frictionless trade. It can conceivably win a majority. The EU calls it a 'heavenly' solution. 6/
Adopting a soft brexit meant that critique of his plan is almost non-existent & his detractors on both sides of the House are restricted to their usual smears & underhand tactics. They cannot fault his plan & he's freed up to focus on splitting the Tories. 7/
If there was another way for JC to get this close to tearing down our corrupt parliament I haven't heard it.

The splits are not for fear of no deal. ND can't happen by accident as MPs would have to choose to oppose a VoNC if Cooper defeated.
Splits are to prevent #JC4PM2019. 8/
The sabateurs pressing the big red button proves 2 things.
1) They were out of time to undermine JC from within.
2) They know a GE is very close as a VoNC would hold immense power if it were the last option to avoid no deal.
This is why it seems crucial Cooper is defeated. 9/
Faced w/ a parliament ready to self destruct rather than let him dictate a resolution to brexit, all JC can do is keep arguing for his plan & wait for them to implode. Arguing against 'no-deal' positioned himself as the voice of the majority, even if the cliff edge is a lie. 10/
If Cooper is defeated, May will have to unilaterally call for art 50 to be delayed & she'll need a big reason to justify it. Either a GE or PV.
If TM solely responsible for PV she is finished. JC must avoid advocating it. They want to tar him as the one who ignores democracy. 11/
But it's hard to see how JC can help defeat Cooper. He officially supported it the first time as it fits with his opositon to no deal. But rebels got away scot free, indicating he was happy for it to fall. I hope he is light on the whip for round 2. 12/
No doubt more tories will quit in order to vote for Cooper as it is their last chance to avoid having to endorse a VoNC in the gov.
In all of this mess, they'll be able to prevent a best case scenario, but if JC stays on target, he could be the one to emerge from the ashes. 13/
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