Thread by @UzairYounus

Quick Summary of the SBP's latest report for the average citizen:
you will face higher inflation and a low prospect of finding decent-paying jobs in the near-term. The economy is contracting and there is no way out except structural reforms, which are nowhere near in sight.

- Economic stabilization measures are having an impact with large scale manufacturing declining by 1.5% in the 2nd half of FY19; it grew by 6.6% in 1st half of FY19
- Agriculture sector missed its targets due to water shortages, and services sector is also "witnessing moderation"

- Inflation reached its highest level in 17 quarters, and will remain high in the coming months; headline CPI reached 6.5% in Q2-FY19, highest level since Q1-FY15, when oil was around $100 per barrel

- Growing fiscal deficit means that efforts to curtail demand will be undermined; current expenditures are rising while tax collection is declining as the economy slows down
- Current expenditures increased due to "higher interest payments and defence related spending"

- Exports are a challenge and export growth has stagnated due to "economic slowdown in key markets" and exports "are expected to miss the target" despite incentive packages
- SBP expects the economy to grow by 3.5-4% in FY19

- Structural reforms are the only path forward - without these, Pakistan's economy will face a boom-bust cycle
- SBP does not see potential for jobs in Pakistan and recommends that "strategic diplomatic efforts" be made to send more skilled labor abroad

TLDR: If you are a young skilled person looking for jobs in #Pakistan, you will have a tough time finding a job. If you are in the middle class or below, you will find it very hard to sustain your lifestyle in the coming months due to high inflation and a stagnating economy. END

Couple of additional points: the chart below shows how defense current expenditures are outpacing even interest payments growth, but there is virtually no debate in #Pakistan over guns/uniforms vs. butter.

Secondly, despite all the "export packages" given to export sectors, #Pakistan is still unable to grow its exports at the same pace as other countries. This shows how uncompetitive rent-seeking industrialists are in the country.

In the first tweet of this thread, I said the economy is contracting. I meant to say that parts of the economy are contracting, alluding to negative growth in LSM. Also, important to recognize that economic growth is consistently slowing. Apologies for the error. 🙏🏼