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Millennial Macro @MillennialMacro
, 12 tweets, 10 min read Read on Twitter
#inflation #bonds $TLT
Charts from last night Australian time. Not updated for most recent ISM number.
YoY% for average gasoline prices falling with the US 10 year yield YoY% and CPI YoY% following.
#USA #growthslowing
US leading economic index YoY%, GS US financial conditions, and the St. @stlouisfed financial stress index all pointing to lower real gdp numbers for the US economy.
#USA #growthslowing
If we advance GS financial conditions forward by 3 months it is likely that real GDP growth and leading economic indicators continue to track lower.
#USA #growthslowing
So the fundamentals are catching up to the market. the ISM printed 54.10 down from 59.30. Consensus is still way too bullish it seems. Watch those forecasts come down.
#USA #growthslowing
Looking at a shorter time frame with the @IHSMarkitPMI for the US. ISM PMI & market PMI much closer together now.
Looking globally we can see that the OECD Global Leading Indicators have rolled over hard. Previously at these levels we have some form of liquidity injection (QE/China stimulus). 🙃
#growthslowing #liquidity
"focus on the movement of liquidity... most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It's liquidity that moves markets."
S Druckenmiller
World M1 USD YoY% vs. USD Index Broad Trade Weighted
Still suggesting USD up!
#growthslowing #OOTT #liquidity
If we advance global M1 forward by 3 months we can see a close correlation with the YoY% in the WTI crude oil price.
#GrowthSlowing #ChinaSlowing $AUDUSD #Commodities
Not seeing much change in the outlook for industrial or metal commodities & therefore the outlook for the Australian Dollar. China M1 YoY% is advanced forward by 6 months. Waiting on December M1 data from China.

#GrowthSlowing #trade
I'm ending this thread! Some more charts as of yesterday.
The markets are pricing in a serious slowdown in industrial production and trade. Has been made pretty obvious by recent data releases. See #Germany!
#GrowthSlowing #trade #EmergingMarkets
Looking at $EEM and $SOXX. Both are just high beta ways to play an acceleration or deceleration in industrial production and trade.
#GrowthSlowing #trade #Commodities
Looking at oil and industrial metals we can see they also lead industrial production and global trade. Note the divergence in oil through 2017 & majority of 2018 then bang has caught down to industrial metals, industrial production & trade.
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