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Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
, 10 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
A list of economists taking the view that the UK belonging or not belonging to the Single Market makes no more than about 1 year's growth difference to GDP in the long-term.
The European Commission (p13, 2.13%):web.archive.org/web/2016050215…
The Bertelsmann Stiftung foundation (p1, 1.0%):bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/file…
Coutts, Gudgin & Buchanan of the Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge (0% GDP per capita, just under 2% GDP):cbr.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user…
Paul Krugman (2%):krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/04/23/bor…
Ashoka Mody, Princeton (0.5%):independent.co.uk/news/business/…
Mervyn King (zero):thesun.co.uk/news/8752696/b…
Roger Bootle (zero or maybe +ve):telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/…
Andrew Lilico (-0.95 to +2.0%) web.archive.org/web/2016060610…
There are many many more taking this "no more than about 1 year's GDP growth either way" view - the standard pre-2015 view. And of course there are also various economists, such as @julianHjessop or @DrGerardLyons who believe there will be gains in excess of 1 year's GDP growth.
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Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
The existential terror the UK political system experiences at the thought of truly leaving the EU, so bad that it is willing to split parties, overturn democracy, abandon centuries-old Parliamentary standing orders & risk riots & terrorism to avoid it, is just amazing to behold.
MPs used to claim Eurosceptics were obsessed with the EU. But the priority MPs reveal *they* place on the EU - so great they'll give up absolutely anything (democracy, party, constitution, personal honour) to stay close to it - is a priority beyond any expectation or rationality.
Since MPs have demonstrated they are willing to burn everything down rather than accept truly leaving the EU, why on earth did they agree to hold the euref? Did they just not realize how much they cared abt us staying in the EU until they found we were in the process of leaving?
Read 4 tweets
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Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
In a free trade agreement countries remove tariffs btwn themselves. In a customs union as well as removing tariffs btwn themselves they also agree to set the same tariffs on other countries - the "Common External Tariff".
There is nothing to prevent countries from having free trade agreements covering most products but a customs union for a few. eg the UK & EU cld agree to an FTA that included a customs union just for cars. telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
In the EEC when tariff barriers came down countries raised non-tariff barriers instead. NB these *rose* in compensation. Therefore to make trade free, the EEC felt it needed to strip away those non-tariff barriers as well, creating the Single Market.
Read 8 tweets
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Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
The most fundamental & enduring division in English politics was that over the Exclusion Bill of 1679. The "Tories" favoured allowing James II to become King, allowing England to fall under the pan-European political structure (at that time the Papacy). The "Whigs" opposed this.
As their Jacobite opponents discredited themselves the Whigs eventually became utterly dominant. From the mid 18th century on, the UK was a one-party state - the Whig Party.
The Whig Party eventually split into 2 factions. One Whig faction eventually, in the early 19th century, came to be known as "Tories", despite having no connection to the previous party called by that name.
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