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A short thread on article 50 extension & this week’s EUCO. This is where I understand things to be at.
At the last Council, PM May was asked to indicate a way forward by April 13. She has - so far - done this only in part.
At the last Council, PM May was asked to indicate a way forward by April 13. She has - so far - done this only in part.
Committing to organising European Parliamentary elections is an important step forward.
But the prime minister hasn’t - yet - outlined a plan or clear purpose for an extension. The outcome of talks with Jeremy Corbyn will determine the shape of any plan, indeed if there is one
But the prime minister hasn’t - yet - outlined a plan or clear purpose for an extension. The outcome of talks with Jeremy Corbyn will determine the shape of any plan, indeed if there is one
The chances of a no deal on 13/04 are extremely low. No senior EU27 govt official I have spoken to in recent days thinks it conceivable that anyone would veto an extension and push Britain over the cliff.
Debate among EU27 is about short vs long extension. Views on this differ.
Debate among EU27 is about short vs long extension. Views on this differ.
A short extension would provide the UK with a decision point: agree the withdrawal agreement or choose no deal or election/referendum (and a long extension). The onus would be on the UK to decide. Critics argue that this risks no deal or opens the door to multiple extensions.
A long extension keeps all options on the table, and Tusk’s flexible extension idea has been conceived as a compromise between the various positions while avoiding multiple extensions & lowering risk of no-deal. But critics say it removes the pressure of having to decide.
Those against long extension without a clear purpose say it would likely see the UK take part in EU elections (that some don’t want), and British politics would just become even more wild – though EU27 will make clear WA cannot be reopened, the UK would soon push for changes.
The next few days are important:
- Talks with Corbyn will determine whether May goes to Brussels with a plan.
- Extension decision is ultimately for leaders, and in seeking a consensus, they have often been tougher than EU officials.
- Talks with Corbyn will determine whether May goes to Brussels with a plan.
- Extension decision is ultimately for leaders, and in seeking a consensus, they have often been tougher than EU officials.
- some senior EU officials believe May hasn’t helped her cause by asking for a short extension without first ensuring she has a pathway to a deal: if talks with Corbyn fail, both the prime minister and the EU27 will be in a tricky spot.
