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Trade uncertainty is having an impact? Interesting report from @KeithBradsher
"Chief executives say the trade war has prompted a fundamental reassessment of China as the dominant place to make things"
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"Chief executives say the trade war has prompted a fundamental reassessment of China as the dominant place to make things"
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One way to evaluate this argument statistically is to look for an increase in US imports from Mexico relative to US imports from China ...
There is a bit of a gap now (for consumer/ capital goods), but perhaps tariff rather than uncertainty driven (and different base effects)
There is a bit of a gap now (for consumer/ capital goods), but perhaps tariff rather than uncertainty driven (and different base effects)
I took out autos for a reason: U.S. auto and parts imports from China are up quite significantly in 2018. China is beating Mexico there.
As @KeithBradsher has reported, there is a lot of spare capacity in China -- and thus an incentive to export.
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As @KeithBradsher has reported, there is a lot of spare capacity in China -- and thus an incentive to export.
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In fact, in Trump's own terms, his trade war with China isn't working in autos.
Exports are down, thanks to China's retaliation (and with BMW moving more SUV production to China as China relaxed its JV rules, I doubt these exports recover). & imports are up bigly.
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Exports are down, thanks to China's retaliation (and with BMW moving more SUV production to China as China relaxed its JV rules, I doubt these exports recover). & imports are up bigly.
(4/4)
