Thread by @Latrilife

Tsla Spring Southern California & Southwest Order Book

~15 section thread, plz be patient as all parts upload

RETWEET RETWEET RETWEET

A special thank you to @TeslaCharts who helped here. Also, ty for ur help w/ my non-tsla situation, I’ll never forget that 👍💪👊 my friend

Tsla Spring SO CAL & Southwest Order Book
In order to fully understand & properly forecast tsla’s future deliveries, let’s first look at tsla’s past delivery practices & processes then move to their present situation

There is no better place to begin than the Burbank Airport

THE PAST

Burbank Airport was a holding lot that tsla leased from April to December ’18. At its peak, it stored ~1700 cars & was a bustling hub of car carries departing w/ inventory to MDR, OC, San Diego, Arizona, New Mexico & Texas. Attached are pics from summer/fall of ‘18

I understood that tsla needed a facility to distribute cars to SO Cal & beyond (be careful what you wish for); however, I also understood that if they deviated from this practice at any time,

such as closing it or drastically reducing inventory it may indicate a lack of demand & or fulfillment of deliveries.

Let’s move to MDR DC. Attached are my observed deliveries in MDR. (September is not listed but the # was ~425). These figures do not include home deliveries; an additional ~5% is a modest % to forecast. Also home deliveries ceased in December.

What we get is ~ 440-470 NEW cars per month. To process these cars efficiently tsla needed to lease an additional 3 lots with-in 1 mile of MDR DC. See attachments of what these lots looked like back then.

More evidence of inventory being stored to produce the record deliveries numbers of Q3 & Q4

THE PRESENT & FUTURE

The next several threads include pics & videos to depict the current status of the above locations.

The lots are labeled within the thread to avoid confusion

Burbank Airport 4/2/19

Tesla abandoned this facility in December 2018

Burbank Airport 4/2/19

Playa Vista

4/6/19

Mar Vista

4/6/19

Marina park (behind MDR DC)

4/6/19

I will get criticized because one argument could be that they have cars in Hawthorne and Burbank for deliveries.Yes, that’s true, but not so fast. This executive departure is one example. Then there are many things different with these lots than Burbank Airport:

1. Void of carriers leaving w inventory
2. A large percentage of cars are lease returns, trade-ins, damaged, missed deliveries
3. These cars have been there since January
4. There’s not that vibrant activity from summer
5. Lots are only staffed w a few security personnel

Conclusion

I did my best to avoid conjecture, speculation and opinions in my tsla observed delivery /inventory threads.
When I would review some of this material I had my own suspicions of why tesla held back on registrations with the DMV.

I had dinner with 2 x tsla employees that confirmed one of my suspicions. They referred to it as: Elon’s “fudge factor”.

Simply put, do not register cars to give the customer an opportunity to return the car, that way we can still sell it as new

Thank you for reading
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