Thread by @ajplus

The Trump administration aims to increase pressure on Iran by forcing other countries to stop buying its oil. Why is Trump taking such a drastic step when UN inspectors & U.S. intelligence have confirmed that Iran isn't developing nuclear weapons? @tparsi explains for AJ+: (1/12)

Trump, echoing Israel, believes the U.S. should have demanded Iran give up its entire atomic energy program in the 2015 nuclear talks. Trump claims that by blocking Iran's ability to sell oil, he can secure a new, more favorable deal. (2/12)
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Sanctions are devastating Iran. According to the IMF, Iran's economy will shrink by 6% this year, and inflation is near record levels. The pain is felt most by ordinary Iranians. Trump hopes that this will pressure the government to negotiate. (3/12)
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The risks of a U.S. economic strangulation strategy are high: Iran could treat the move as an act of war, and for the U.S., it could create tensions with allies and slow the domestic economy by raising gas prices. (4/12)

More importantly, Trump's plan isn't likely to work. Critics have noted that Iranian leadership is united against giving in to pressure, and that under previous sanctions regimes, Tehran rapidly expanded its nuclear program. (5/12)
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When President GW Bush chose sanctions over talks, it resulted in a larger Iranian nuclear program. In 2003, Iran had 150 centrifuges and no low-enriched uranium (LEU). By the time Bush left office, Iran had 8,000 centrifuges and enough LEU to make one bomb. (6/12)

Obama didn't fare any better. Under his watch, Iran went from 8,000 to 22,000 centrifuges. By early 2013, Obama recognized that if he stuck with sanctions, he would have to live w/a nuclear Iran – or bow to pressure to bomb it. He chose diplomacy. (7/12)
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Israel and the Saudis were furious with Obama's compromise, which elevated an Iranian regime they would have preferred to eliminate into a partner via an international agreement. Now, with Trump, they have a second chance to go after Tehran. (8/12)

But critics are suspicious of Trump's motivations. While Trump says he wants new negotiations, some of his key advisors have long pushed for war and regime change in Iran. National Security Advisor John Bolton even wrote an op-ed titled "Bomb Iran." (9/12)
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Tensions are running high. Tehran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz – which facilitates the transport of 40% of the world's oil – if Iran cannot sell its own oil. That would undoubtedly draw a U.S. military response. (10/12)
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While China, Turkey, India, Iraq and the EU have vowed to defy U.S. sanctions, they're in a precarious situation. Defying sanctions could shut them out of trade with the U.S., although they could also suffer economically if they abide by them. (11/12)
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Iran's strategy has been to wait out Trump in the hopes that he's voted out in 2020. But what if he's reelected? And what if Iran's willingness to ignore Trump's provocations expires before his term ends? (12/12)