Thread by @SkidRowRadio_YT

THREAD: Jez plays politics like Gazza played football. Always 3 steps ahead.

As I predicted months ago, TM ended up supporting the Cooper amendment, giving parliament power to force an extension after May's deal is defeated. JC has forseen its inevitability & owned it. 1/

Tho his strategy has risked angering huge swathes of leave voters, whats not understood is that JC is opposing BRINO. Not brexit. It can't be restated enough.

MAYS DEAL IS NOT BREXIT!

It gives the EU a veto that'd prevent us ever being able to vote ourselves out in future. 2/

JC tried everything possibly to shape TM's deal into something labour could vote for it. That was his preference. He wanted to help May pass a deal & he got no end of stick for it. He was called a secret brexiteer (its not a secret). He's a democrat & believes in the vote. 3/

But she has not altered her purposefully unpalletable deal. Amidst all the critique of JCs decisions there is tumbleweed when asked for an alternative approach that could have enabled a workable brexit.
Now JC has 1 card left - threaten to block May's vassel state stitch up. 4/

JC pre-empted TM. He told her to take no-deal off the table. People ridiculed the idea, now May allows a vote to do just that.
In politics theres only 1 thing worse than pissing your own voters off & that's being irrelevent. JCs strategy has kept him positioned as conductor. 5/

The Labour left are understandably besides themselves w/ consternation at the thought of JC backing remain in a PV. BUT that would only be in a vote against May's BRINO.
If JC can scare TM into changing her deal in line with Labs requests then Lab would campaign for brexit. 6/

From a minority positon, surrounded by backstabbers, what else could JC do but continue to pressure the gov? The threat of blocking BRINO is his last card to play, since the IG will help May win a VoC.
The real game being played is to crush JC. So far they've failed. 7/

He had to take a big PR hit for this last roll of the dice. No doubt he held off for so long precisely because he knew it would damage his stock amongst leave voters, most of which dont realise the mirage that is May's fake deal. JC is saving leavers from a fake leave. 8/

With 'news' that JRM is 'softening' to May's deal, it's clear the ERG are desperate to avoid a delay as it could lead to a GE. Mogg reiterated an old pledge - if the backstop is time limited he will support the deal. The backstop will never be time limited. It is the EUs veto. 9/

A good strategist fights battles they can win. If you HAVE to have an unwinnable battle, position yourself on the side that will win. That's what JC has done with support for Coopers amendment & opposition to 'no-deal'. On the surface they go against Lexit but he'd have lost. 10/

Ideally he'd have been able to plant his flag in the Lexit camp from day 1, but we have to plot what would have happened.
The PLP would have definitely split much sooner & it would have been much bigger. Labour would have become the 3rd party. 172/40 voted no conf. 11/

What could he do from there? Keep yelling for Lexit from a far away seat? Nowhere near the dispatch box. Nowhere near power. Sidelined as parliament cracked on w/ stealin brexit.
By owning the threat of PV, as a check against BRINO, JC is making her deal less likely to pass. 12/

If it doesn't, there's nothing to vote on in a PV, so when the EU comes knocking for a reason to delay art 50, only a GE or a capitulation to Labour's deal criteria would suffice. JC had to break some eggs but if this works out right we could be eatin pancakes very soon. 13/