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Gray 'serial millennial myth debunker' Kimbrough
@graykimbrough
, 6 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Without twitter, I'd just be a random guy with an econ PhD who knows a *lot* about the ATUS, the CPS, and Census data.

With twitter, I'm engaging with journalists at the Washington Post, NPR, Vox, and the BBC. I'm sharing graphs with people all over the world. It's pretty great.
Chalk this up to twitter. qz.com/1475409/will-r…
This one, too. marketwatch.com/story/a-study-…
Another one that wouldn't have happened without twitter. washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2019…
And of course this one is due to twitter, and was a defining moment in my presence here. washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2019…
Anyway, all of this was just working up to my shining moment, when I inspired the amazing @dynarski to say, "READ THE FUCKING CODEBOOK."

It may take me a while to recover from this.
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More from @graykimbrough see all

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Gray 'serial millennial myth debunker' Kimbrough
@graykimbrough
Last weekend, @profpauldolan spoke at the Hay festival in the UK, and some of his remarks were picked up by the BBC, the Guardian, and the Independent, and then repeated dozens of times in outlets across the world, including US reporting from FOX News to local TV stations. 1/
I’m no “happiness expert” and don’t have strong ideological feelings about whether everyone should be getting married or not, but I have done a ton of research with the American Time Use Survey (ATUS), which he said he based his statements on. And the claims felt weird to me. 2/
First of all, there’s this statement: that when a married woman’s spouse is not “in the room,” she’s “fucking miserable.” I know that this information isn’t included in the ATUS, so I reached out to him. He has since retracted this statement and will correct it in his book. 3/
Read 16 tweets
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Gray 'serial millennial myth debunker' Kimbrough
@graykimbrough
Unlike @NickWolfinger, I don't have a dog in the fight over whether married people are happier than unmarried people. But building off of what he's pointed out, Paul Dolan's argument using ATUS data that many outlets have picked up is even more misguided than I first thought.
Dolan expands on this argument in his book, Happy Ever After. The book also provides a few figures like this one. But notice: those six categories line up perfectly with values of the "marital status" variable, having nothing to do with who is present for the ATUS interview.
The marital status information isn't even collected as part of the ATUS phone interview. It's from the CPS interview that happened 2-5 months prior. A narrower question of the presence of a spouse or unmarried partner (in the *household*) is asked at the ATUS interview.
Read 8 tweets
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Gray 'serial millennial myth debunker' Kimbrough
@graykimbrough
Inspired by @andrewvandam's figure, I calculated the average cumulative real GDP growth 2-10 years after reaching age 18 (approximately graduating from high school) by generation. As he put it: Millennials really are special, or at least unique in the economy they inherited.
Using *per capita* real GDP, the picture is essentially unchanged, albeit even worse for older millennials (as seen in the 8 and 10-year growth rates).

[those responsible for tweeting the earlier figure based on an incorrect calculation have been sacked]
Here is the full article from @andrewvandam that includes the figure I referenced above, plus some references to my previous millennial myth debunking. washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2019…
Read 5 tweets

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