, 13 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
1/ There has been much discussion in recent weeks about whether the League wants to take Italy out of the Euro.

2/ A very good summary of what’s happened and why it matters is here, by @SMerler:

3/ With League representatives being invited on national TV to talk about #minibot it’s quite right for journalists & researchers to keep an eye on this – the consequences could be huge, of course.
4/ For what it’s worth, I don't think the League is planning to exit Euro. Not now, as the M5S's partner, nor if it manages to govern at the head of a right wing
coalition (a likely outcome if an election is held next year).
5/ As it often happens with Salvini, his tactics are rarely original – albeit usually
well executed (the big exception to this rule being the dropping of regionalism
from the leader’s discourse, which is new: bit.ly/2EovM52)
6/ The League’s basic tactic throughout the years has been to keep “one foot in and one foot out” of government, that is to govern while being seen not to have "lost its soul", as we explained abt 15 years ago: bit.ly/2K30KE5
7/ In other words, even when in govt, & precisely BECAUSE they are in govt, they keep appealing to their most radical constituencies & wink at them to suggest that they are still on their side, that "they haven't changed" for the sake of power...
8/ My bet is that when Salvini gets to become PM he will focus
on delivering on his domestic agenda. He knows that consensus
is extremely volatile all across Europe for reasons that have been discussed at
length, & this applies to Italy, 100%.
9/ The 35% the League appears to attract right now DOES NOT come from hardcore supporters (such as that 4% of the Italian electorate who followed Bossi as League’s leader, come what may). It’s here today, gone tomorrow.
10/ Does Salvini believe he would have the strength & support to withstand the cyclone that would hit Italy if it were to exit the EU (since this is what we are talking abt here)?

I don't think so.

How long would any govt survive this? Perhaps a good 15 minutes.
11/ I would not mistake what you see as his radicalism with lack of
pragmatism and strategy. & I would always keep in mind that the bulk of the League's support comes from the export-oriented areas of widespread industrialisation of the north.
12/ This is NOT to deny that recent events described above have alarmed the markets; nor am I saying that Italy will never crash out by mistake, due to various chains of events being set in motion (crystall ball cannot see that far).
13/ What I am saying is that I do not buy the argument that such crashing out is being planned.

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