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Actually, none of the reasons given here are why I doubt that a Fed rate cut would be very effective, or in general why we're so badly prepared to fight a slump if it happens 1/ cnbc.com/2019/06/14/fed…
The most immediate problem is that there isn't enough room to cut. In past recessions the Fed has on average cut by 5 percentage points, and even that wasn't enough to avoid long "jobless recoveries". This time they only have room to do half that much 2/ 
Also, long-term rates -- which are what matter for investment – are already very low. How much lower would a Fed cut push them? And what would they drive? Monetary policy works largely through housing, and while we aren't in 2006-bubble territory, housing already high 3/
What about fiscal policy? The GOP already blew $2 trillion on ineffective tax cuts. Could it come back and ask for more – especially when Democrats know that Rs would immediately turn around and say that debt requires cutting government spending? Very hard to see stimulus 4/
So we're very badly prepared for any adverse shock. Trade war makes things worse, but it's not at the core of the problem, which reflects longer-term weakness and political dysfunction, aka the legacy of past GOP sabotage and betrayal 5/
