Thread by @jonworth

Tired of #Brexit?

Then argue for a #PeoplesVote

Sounds odd. But let me explain.

There’s no majority for any specific Brexit variant in the Commons.

About 100 MPs want No Deal
200 MPs want the Deal that’s on the table
200 MPs want some non specified 🦄 Brexit
100 MPs want to Remain

So “just get on with it!” is a useless demand.

Get on with *what version* of Brexit exactly?

Go for No Deal and you send the economy into a tailspin and you’re going to be debating Brexit for years.

Go for the Deal on the table and you’re going to spend a decade negotiating the future trade deal with EU.

To get to a softer Brexit you need more time and probably a General Election, and you *still* have years of negotiation to go.

To adapt a famous phrase: the Withdrawal Agreement is not the end. It is not the beginning of the end. But it is just about the end of the beginning.

But back to the #PeoplesVote...

Even if the current deal or a softer Brexit passed the current House of Commons, what hope for the next stages? Good luck getting a majority for anything!

But if the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration passed a referendum that’d give those greater legitimacy - to make a managed Brexit happen and smoothen it’s implementation.

Or a referendum could stop the lot.

A win either way.

A General Election, while likely, could well just end with further stalemate.

Revoking #Article50 is a step too radical for MPs to take.

And just asking 🇪🇺 for postponement is no solution and won’t work indefinitely.

Don’t get me wrong - a #PeoplesVote is far from perfect. But there are only lousy options here.

To adapt another famous phrase, a referendum would be the worst solution here, except any others we might try.

(Note the referendum must be in the current Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration, vs. Remain - it’s vital both options on the ballot are as concrete and clear as possible. No Deal is not) /ends