,
11 tweets,
3 min read
Read on Twitter
Our warning that ISIS is likely capable of seizing a major urban center is perhaps the most alarming conclusion of our report. As such, I'll unpack what it does and doesn't mean here
1/
1/
We assess that #ISIS has the forces, commanders, money, weapons/ammunition, and penetration into various urban areas to conduct an urban assault if it chose to do so. This would require ISIS to mass forces and to take a pretty considerable risk, but they could do it. 2/
ISIS has spent over 1yr, & in many areas over 2, conducting an intelligence-driven campaign of assassinations against local community leaders & those who supported the coalition. This weakens local resistance by killing key people & reasserts psychological control/coercion 3/
ISIS is also reasserting psychological control by reimposing extortion via taxes, kidnapping operations, protection rackets, etc. The burning of agricultural fields in Iraq & Syria supports this campaign both by imposing consequences for those who defy but also fueling poverty 4/
What this all means is that the anti-ISIS campaign has not created a sense of security in most liberated areas despite the coalition's narrative, and ISIS is expending resources further demonstrating to these people that they are not safe. This is incredibly important. 5/
We warned about the ISIS capacity to take an urban center because of the psychological effect this kind of shock offensive could have under current conditions. We also sought to bust the myth that ISIS's remnants are disaggregated and only capable of terrorist attacks 6/
ISIS is telling its forces and supporters to be patient about land grabs, It is encouraging the TEMPORARY seizure of terrain as the next step and it used the example of a major raid in Libya, where ISIS is far less capable. ISIS's terrain focus is intact. ISIS quote: 7/ 
We predict ISIS will conduct urban raids in the next year, temporarily taking terrain to test its capability to do so, attrit enemies, & achieve psychological effects. We havent predicted where (yet) but warned of poor security in Iraqi disputed areas & central/western Syria 8/
We warned that ISIS COULD mass to seize an urban center not because ISIS likely will but because of the consequences of that hard reality. We can't withdraw from Syria, or ISIS certainly will. We can't pull back further in Iraq for the same reason. We need to do more in both. 9/
ISIS's insurgency is gaining momentum faster than anti-ISIS forces can dampen it. ISIS's goal is still to create its own state (which will never change). So we need to anticipate how ISIS will transition back to land grabs. Hopefully they'll fail. They will certainly try. 10/
ISW's mission is to look over the horizon to warn decision makers of future threats, to help avoid strategic surprise & act earlier to avert worst possible outcomes. Our ISIS assessment does that. If the US proceeds on this course, ISIS will retake terrain. Time to rethink. 11/
