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Staedtler
@Staedtler
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
All the dates.

July 23rd - new Tory leader
July 25th - Summer recess

Aug 1st - Radnor by election

Sept 3rd - Parliament opens
Sept 14th - Party conferences

Oct 7th Parliament re-opens
Oct 17th - European Council
Oct 31st - Brexit extension expires
If they call an election the day after the new Tory leader, then an election on September 5th

If they call it on September 3rd after recess, then an election on October 3rd

If they call it on October 7th straight after conference season, then an election on October 31st
There will be one vote of no confidence before summer. If the Tories survive that, and maybe only by one vote, if they survive that's the end of the line anyway. Two months to prepare for a general election.
You can't get anything out of people in this country.
I think the party conferences follow summer recess, and the state opening of parliament follows the party conferences.
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More from @Staedtler see all

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Staedtler
@Staedtler
I keep saying June when I mean July, and I wish I wouldn't do that.

Sorry. What we're looking out for on JULY 25th is the formal notice of prorogation.
And if that's what happens, and I imagine it will, then Brexit is, as near as dammit, certain to never happen
Because once prorogued Parliament can only be opened again with a Queen's speech. And that will either fail to get through or be amended to include a referendum.

And if it fails to get through, it's an election with manifestos, and a referendum.
Oh yes, and if Parliament is not prorogued it means the session never ends and nothing parliament has already voted on this last two years can be put back to another vote.

Including the withdrawal agreement
Read 3 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
I think I know what's going to happen.

The new Tory leader takes over on July 23rd, like you said.

Two days later on June 25th, parliament goes on holiday for the summer

This is now a very interesting date.
Usually parliament would be prorogued at this point. As we've seen, that's just the formal ending of one parliamentary session.

We've had a two year parliament, so what should happen is a formal notice of prorogation is given on June 25th
And this is the thing to look out for.

If the new Tory leader gives a formal notice of prorogation on June 25th, then we know Brexit won't happen.
Read 7 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
I understand now.
It turns out I've been confused about some of this stuff all along. I thought parliaments just ended by themselves.

No. No.
A parliament is the period between two general elections. I know that part.

And I thought a session was the period between two Queen's speeches. But no. You were right and I was wrong.

A "session" is the period between the state opening at one end, and prorogation at the other.
That's what I mean. I thought each parliamentary session had a fixed date and then just ended by themselves.

Apparently, just as a session has to be formally opened with a Queen's speech, so it also has to be formally closed by prorogation.
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
Outstanding briefing by @ConUnit_UCL
· New Tory leader won't automatically form govt on 24 July
· Parliament will probably have to sit beyond 25 July
· Prorogation would be "suicide" for new PM
constitution-unit.com/2019/06/30/six…
Important point that ruling out no-deal Brexit may be price Johnson has to pay to secure confidence of Commons to form govt
One further point: if Commons *did* want an election before 31 Oct it could legislate to cut the 5-week period, only brought in in 2013
Read 3 tweets
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Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
The notion a new Tory leader might be elected, but if that person cldn't command a majority in the Commons May might stay a while is...interesting...
Confidence for a new PM seems unlikely. It's tricky to believe any new Tory PM cld get a Queen's speech through, for example. If it included No Deal measures, anti-No Dealers wld vote it down. If it didn't include No Deal measures, pro-No Dealers wld vote it down.
The fact the opinion polls & Labour's recent performances in Wales & Scotland suggest Corbyn has no chance of forming a majority only makes confidence for a new Tory PM even less likely. Opponents of whomever it is can afford to risk a General Election.
Read 6 tweets
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Phil Syrpis
@syrpis
Lots of chat already today about the extension of the Article 50 period. Let me add to that, by trying to set out what is at stake. Thread. 1/
As things stand, the extension, subject to a review later this month, ends on October 31. The UK leaves with or without the WA on that date, unless it chooses to revoke A50 before that. 2/
In relation to the June review, I can't better this from @FabianZuleeg. 3/
Read 23 tweets
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ooj
@SkidRowRadio_YT
THREAD: When is a 2nd ref not a 2nd ref?

When it's the first ref curated by a PM who will actually honour the result.

JC knows a GE is likely to come before brexit is sorted. He knows his PLP will push remain. He can head them off by sayin we'll offer a PV if we win a GE. 1/
Currently the only EU-ratified deal is Mays iron maiden catastrophuck. If a no-dealer becomes PM & marches towards the cliff, parliament will trigger a GE by supporting a VoNC.
Then Labour will have a chance to pitch THEIR deal. 1st to the public & if they win, to the EU. 2/
Thus sabateurs would be faced with having to promote a Corbyn gov on a promise of their own pet project, now official party policy.
They intended to use PV to reverse brexit & damage JC, but this way it could elect JC & ensure Labour's compromise package gets passed. 3/
Read 20 tweets
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Alex Wickham
@alexwickham
NEW: Tory MP Christopher Chope (who previously objected to the upskirting bill) is branded an “embarrassment to your party and humanity” after indicating he will block new laws on female genital mutilation this afternoon

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/to…
Anti-FGM campaigners spent the week begging Christopher Chope via text message not to block the bill. He wouldn't speak to them on the phone. Chope complained they were subjecting him to “verbal abuse”. buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/to…
Chope also under pressure from whips who have asked him not to block the bill today. Govt source: "Christopher Chope is wrong." buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/to…
Read 4 tweets
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Sergio Graziosi
@GraziosiSergio
What the hell is @jeremycorbyn doing?
Why is he enabling #Tory #Brexit?
Is this the final betrayal?
No, it isn't.
It's the predicted effect of decisions taken 2-3 years ago. All things considered, it's not as bad as it could have been (thanks to #StopBrexit crowd).

Thread.
1/n
To understand why, I need to outline 2 important mechanisms that most people, politicians and commentators seem to ignore, dismiss or simply don't get. They have different and somewhat opposite consequences, but are both decisive in the current & foreseeable predicaments.
2/n
1st and foremost: the biggest constraint that applies to political decision-making comes from the past decisions & policies.
It is a massive constraint.
Cameron COULD NOT convincingly campaign for #Remain, because his own policies CREATED the discontent channelled by #Leave.
3/n
Read 23 tweets

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