Thread by @unseen1_unseen

1 At some point we will have to start thinking as winners instead of losers. The USMCA is one example. As it stands, Trump holds all the cards on USMCA but one. The one card he doesn't control is getting the USMCA to the floor of the House. That card is held by Pelsoi.

2. Since she holds that card and she is a democrat, the automatic impluse by many on the right is that USMCA will not be passed. Is this a good impluse? IMO it isn't. The way I see it, Pelsoi's card is nothing but lose-lose-lose-lose for her and the Dems.

3. Instead of looking at this as *muh we are doomed" let's look at it from "we will win, win and win again". First, understand that USMCA is on schedule. Sure, it could have been voted on by now but then it would have been ahead of schedule.

4. We should know by now that when it comes to Congress doing anything; they always wait until the last minute. It's just the way Congress works. So the schedule as far as I can tell is late July/before Aug recess.

5. Therefore, the narrative about USMCA being held up by Pelosi is basically just that a narrative. It's spin. It's meaningless at this point. It's a narrative to make u depressed. It's intended to make us think like losers. Think about it. Which is better for the Dems/left...

6.... a story line that USMCA is on track and soon to be voted on or one that makes it seem that Pelsoi will not allow Trump "a win" on NAFTA? Pelosi may hold the "house vote" card but Trump holds the "tear up NAFTA" card.

7. At anytime, Trump can simply say the USA is leaving NAFTA and 6 months later there is no NAFTA. If forced Trump will do this before the election and then run on it during the election so Pelsoi is on the clock here. (That's her first lose option)

8. How will Pelosi look if she forces Trump to tear up NAFTA with a new deal on the table just waiting for a vote. A vote that will pass the House and Senate. Does Pelosi really want to be the face that forces Trump to tear up one of the biggest trade deals in history?

9. The second lose card Pelsoi holds is the Speakership. She has a very divided Dem party. If she holds up USMCA the Dems in the rust belt will have a hard time getting re-elected. The GOP only needs to flip 18 seats. USMCA will boost the economy. Will Pelsoi seriously put....

10. ...her speakership in jeopardy to stop Trump having "a short term win"? I don't think so. The third lose card Pelsoi holds is the steel and Al tariffs on CA and MX. Failure to pass USMCA means those tariffs go back on. There is a lot of political pressure to keep them off.

11. Pelosi is a political creature, Trump is not. The political pressure will impact her much more than Trump. Add to that political pressure for passage of USMCA by unions, environmental groups and other groups that stand to make a lot of money on the agreement.

12. The next lose card Pelosi holds is Canada's economy and Justin's election. Canada's economy is in dire straits right now. One of the main reasons is the delay of USMCA stopping investment into Canada. Delay on USMCA like with China helps Trump.

13. Will Pelosi risk sending Canada into a major recession right before her leftist friend, Justin's, election?

14. Add it all up and it's clear Pelsoi is in a very unfavorable position. The risk is heavily weighted against Pelsoi, if she holds up USMCA.

15. To take on that much risk the reward has to be worth it. What is the reward if Pelsoi holds up USMCA? Not much. She might get some pats on the back from the TDS sufferers and of course she denies Trump "a win". Even as leverage its not a good card for her to play.

16. Finally, its an off election year. Most people won't even remember the passage of USMCA next summer. Sure, Trump will remind people and the economy will be better but no one will hold it against Pelsoi for allowing a vote.

17. In other words, she has very little to gain by holding up USMCA, very much to lose by holding up USMCA, almost zero negative political impact for allowing a vote yet heavy political blowback for not allowing one. She is in a lose-lose-lose-lose position.

18. The best action for her would seem to be for her to allow the vote as quickly as possible. Of course that would have been the play for the Dems with the Kavanaugh vote as well. They went with option B costing them any hope of taking the Senate in 2018.

19. The Dems do stupid things. Pelosi may just be stupid enough to withhold the vote and cost the Dems the house. Stranger things have happened. Regardless, I'll continue to think the USMCA will pass and we will win on this also, until something changes the facts on the ground.