,
13 tweets,
7 min read
Read on Twitter
In 2017, assuming an energy system running on 100% renewables (solar, wind and hydro) was considered frivolous by most 'experts'.
In 2017 @mzjacobson was strongly condemned after he quantified a possible 100% RE route for the USA.
But in 2018 the dam broke!
(thread)
In 2017 @mzjacobson was strongly condemned after he quantified a possible 100% RE route for the USA.
But in 2018 the dam broke!
(thread)
The first ideas to calculate 100% RE are probably from 1975 or so.
I vividly remenber Gregor Czisch his 2005 100% RE model. It contributed to my first simple 100% RE calculations and my evaluations of the IEA.
But it was all fringe.
I vividly remenber Gregor Czisch his 2005 100% RE model. It contributed to my first simple 100% RE calculations and my evaluations of the IEA.
But it was all fringe.
In retrospect, I consider 2017 the year the old guard made it's last stance (in academia).
@mzjacobson was denounced as a heretical quack for proposing a 100% RE scenario pnas.org/content/114/26…
And a new meta study of 100% RE studies concluded 100% RE was unfeasable.
@mzjacobson was denounced as a heretical quack for proposing a 100% RE scenario pnas.org/content/114/26…
And a new meta study of 100% RE studies concluded 100% RE was unfeasable.
2018 was the year the dam broke.
The 2017 meta study was roundly rebutted in a 2018 paper that for me *buries* the myth that 100% RE is unfeasable (or even very expensive).
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
The 2017 meta study was roundly rebutted in a 2018 paper that for me *buries* the myth that 100% RE is unfeasable (or even very expensive).
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Since 2017, people like @mzjacobson and @ChristianOnRE have entire academic groups working on models that prove 100% RE is possible. And with 180 papers worldwide in 2018 and 100 in the first half of 2019 alone: this ship has sailed.
People like @nworbmot (who traded the 'racket' of string theory for the more meaningful pursuit of 100% RE) and of course @jfdecarolis (who just got a grant for this) are spearheading the push to make energy models open source (@MLiebreich #FreeTheModels) innovationorigins.com/tomorrow-is-go…
Stefan Pfenninger powerfully explained why open source is important for academia
and @MatthiasFripp his open source models have made a big difference in Hawaii.
I especially like how young idealistic people can easily enter the fray with OS models.
and @MatthiasFripp his open source models have made a big difference in Hawaii.
I especially like how young idealistic people can easily enter the fray with OS models.
I make local OS models for 100% RE with zenmo.com and the @TUeindhoven and I noticed how governments are craving for tools that show them how they can achieve this. They are willing but need quantified models that act both as guidance and a defense against critics.
100% RE models can be convincing because the underlying technologies have seen such spectacular improvements. Solar panels became 100x cheaper since 1980. Wind (esp. offshore) is getting cheaper fast. Batteries 10x cheaper, 5x lighter and 10x longer lasting in ~15 yrs
Of course all this doesn't mean stopping our habit of burning fossil fuels will be easy. I've accepted I must make such models for at least 10 more years and will be met by fossil lobby sponsored naysayers, conservative pensioners, and opinionated nitwits every step of the slog.
I've also come to the conclusion that closing nuclear plants on a grid still running fossil fuels is not a good idea, which messes up many discussions with supposed allies. (New nuclear can't compete on price.)
But these are minor quibbles.
But these are minor quibbles.
Today, @ChristianOnRE's tweet reminded me we are living in historic times. We are making the transition from burning nature to harvesting the sun directly, and it feels like last year we passed a tipping point: things are speeding up fast!
I just hope we're fast enough.
/end
I just hope we're fast enough.
/end
Errata. I made a mistake in reporting 100 papers in the first half of 2019. @ChristianOnRE's group added 100 papers but mant from earlier years that they so far overlooked. Also @mzjacobson wrote a 1st 100% RE mobility paper in 2005.
