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2 “projectiles” into the East Sea from #NorthKorea.
2019 is the year launches come into twos, it would seem. Candidates for this launch among the known new systems tested this year include the KN23, NK ATACMS, 400 mm MLRS, & 600 mm MLRS.
That’d be confirmed “projectiles” #18 and #19 for 2019. (Possibly #19 & #20, but there’s some question about whether the May 4 test included two KN23s.)
More data via @joshjonsmith. A South Pyongan launch site hasn’t been featured so far this year.
@joshjonsmith Inland means not Nampo (where they’d done Scud-C testing before and may choose to do new SLBM testing).
@joshjonsmith South Pyongan is also home to Pyongsong and the March 16 Factory (where the Hwasong-15 was first testing). Nodongs/Hwasong-12 have also been tested from there before (Sunchon/Pukchang Airfields).
@joshjonsmith That’s all I’ve got for now. Next, the usual drill: wait for range, apogee, time of flight, etc. Tomorrow, we’ll get pictures.
@joshjonsmith I wouldn’t mind a few more pictures of the missile facilities at Pukchang though. I’m sure @DaveSchmerler wouldn’t either.
@joshjonsmith @DaveSchmerler This doesn’t necessarily mean anything particularly ominous, by the way. Kim’s MO since 2016 has been diversifying/rotating launch sites (okay, setting aside the fondness for Kalma/Hodo).
@joshjonsmith @DaveSchmerler I’d expect this to be the 600 mm MLRS again just in terms of the divergent testing volumes this year. KN23 has seen 7 tests; 400 mm MLRS has seen 4 tests; the unnamed ATACMS lookalike has seen 4 tests; the 600 mm MLRS has seen 2 tests.
@joshjonsmith @DaveSchmerler And this comes right after Choe Son Hui opening the possibility for talks later this month. @NarangVipin and I suggested North Korea was practicing its own form of “maximum pressure”; perhaps now it’s “maximum pressure and engagement.” foreignaffairs.com/articles/north…
@joshjonsmith @DaveSchmerler @NarangVipin Usually, diplomatic openings/active talks have coincided with a de facto moratorium on missile testing, because North Korea knows the US would complain. That may be changing given Trump’s extensive green-lighting across 9 separate test events before this.
@joshjonsmith @DaveSchmerler @NarangVipin (Before someone jumps in, usually means not always: the short-range Toksa underwent testing in the lead up to the 2005 Six-Party Talks meetings—small potatoes since there was also a reprocessing campaign in 2005.)
@joshjonsmith @DaveSchmerler @NarangVipin “Super-large” MLRS is the 600 mm system. They tested it on MET and this time apparently on a depressed trajectory.
@joshjonsmith @DaveSchmerler @NarangVipin I’m waiting to see if we’ll see a new launcher—perhaps an integrated, tracked TEL. If the launch used the airfield as @JosephHDempsey convincingly argues, then we might see a similar/identical wheeled TEL. 
@joshjonsmith @DaveSchmerler @NarangVipin @JosephHDempsey Will wait to see the Korean on this, but I wonder if this is a reference to a shoot-and-scoot operational test (“running”).
@joshjonsmith @DaveSchmerler @NarangVipin @JosephHDempsey Why does that matter? North Korea knows the ROK-US alliance plans to rapidly respond with counterbattery fire; if they can shoot and move a 600 mm MRL-capable TEL quickly, that complicates counterbattery planning and improves launcher lifespans in a conflict.
@joshjonsmith @DaveSchmerler @NarangVipin @JosephHDempsey First images. 600 mm MLRS indeed. Kim Yo Jong is back and observing again, suggesting her role in military affairs is growing. We have what appears to be a wheeled TEL off-road. #NorthKorea
@joshjonsmith @DaveSchmerler @NarangVipin @JosephHDempsey Full KCNA release on second “super-large” MLRS test.
@joshjonsmith @DaveSchmerler @NarangVipin @JosephHDempsey Kim’s been really into this soda/iced coffee beverage for his latest missile tests this year.
@joshjonsmith @DaveSchmerler @NarangVipin @JosephHDempsey Renewed call to mass-produce: “He indicated immediate tasks and ways for putting the production of our style tactical guided weapons including super-large multiple rocket launcher on the highest level”
@joshjonsmith @DaveSchmerler @NarangVipin @JosephHDempsey Not quite as evocative as Kim wading ashore to watch a missile test, but here he is in the unkempt field—an attempt to portray his ruggedness.
@joshjonsmith @DaveSchmerler @NarangVipin @JosephHDempsey In the release, Kim Yo Jong’s name appears second after the KPA general staff head General Pak Jong Chon.
@joshjonsmith @DaveSchmerler @NarangVipin @JosephHDempsey Uncensored cell phone again. Same case as earlier this summer.
@joshjonsmith @DaveSchmerler @NarangVipin @JosephHDempsey More pictures of the latest 600 mm “super-large” MLRS test.
@joshjonsmith @DaveSchmerler @NarangVipin @JosephHDempsey Three released in high resolution here, including the shot of the aft end of the canisters. Useful for mensuration.
@joshjonsmith @DaveSchmerler @NarangVipin @JosephHDempsey @ArmsControlWonk @nukestrat @mhanham @grace_c_liu @ajmount @ISNJH Hydraulic pressure gauge?
@joshjonsmith @DaveSchmerler @NarangVipin @JosephHDempsey @ArmsControlWonk @nukestrat @mhanham @grace_c_liu @ajmount @ISNJH As others have suggested, could also be an angle gauger/Inclinometer.
No high res of this shot sadly. Won't get a clean look at the trajectory representation on Kim's map.
Checked this and looks like the plan is to do a volley/ripple fire test at some point (exhaust all launch tubes in rapid succession).
Helpful.
I was just wondering about this from the shot of the back-end of the canisters. So did the South Koreans miss one of the missiles or did something go wrong?
Hm.
The images seem to show pretty good evidence that three tubes were emptied; South Koreans reported tracking two missiles into the East Sea and have subsequently said one may have landed inland. That’d suggest 1 of 3 failed (instead of 1 of 2).
So they accidentally hit themselves. That wouldn’t be a first and this missile wouldn’t be the largest to fail over land. A Hwasong-12 IRBM struck a town in April 2017. thediplomat.com/2018/01/when-a…
If a failure did occur, it’d be the first since August 25, 2017. That day 1/3 KN21 missiles launched failed.
