Thread by @robfordmancs

I’m in an #epop2019 panel on “explaining the Brexit vote” here’s what I’ve learned (1/?):
1. Education reforms in the 1980s which meant more Scottish teenagers learned foreign languages might be one reason Scotland voted more for Remain (Roland Kappe)

From @caprosser I learned that Remainers and Leavers have different value systems and these “moral foundations” influenced what mattered to them in the EU referendum

(I also learned from @caprosser that one person in the British Election Study voted Leave to end the compulsory murder of squirrels policy they believed the EU had imposed)

People with a more moralised view of Brexit are more polarised because they think their opponents are bad people

From Lauren McLaren I learned that nationalism and economic perceptions are intertwined. People who saw the EU as a threat to British ID were more likely to believe Britain would benefit economically from Brexit but ALSO...

People who perceive an economic benefit from the EU (and therefore perceive Brexit as economically harmful) see it as less of a threat to national ID

TL;dr - identity and economics are habitually treated as competing explanations but in fact they interact in all sorts of interesting ways

From @StephenDFisher Eilidh Macfarlane and @ProfTimBale I learned that Theresa May’s deal is unpopular because it generated little enthusiasm but intense (and diverse) opposition

Partisanship mattered more than Brexit ID - only Cons liked the deal (and many did regardless of their Brexit vote), no support from Lab supporters regardless of Brexit views. More attention to politics increased opposition - “to know it is to hate it”

Basically none of the substantive issues with the deal actually mattered much to voters (including the backstop), nor did fear of no deal have much effect on support for the May deal

The main thing that mattered other than partisanship was leader effects - people who liked May more supported her deal; people who liked Farage more opposed the deal

Meanwhile for Johnson there is the opposite effect - he didn’t effect support for the deal but views of the deal had a big effect on what people later think of him

TL;DR Parties and leaders matter - compromise will only work if there is strong cross party elites’ support for it. But that doesn’t look likely any time soon.