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Singapore non-oil domestic exports fell -8.9%YoY in August (another economy reporting contraction). All about electronics as that fell -25.9% from -24.2% in July.
The downturn of the electronic cycle is hitting South Korea and Singapore rather hard & calls for diversification 👈🏻
The downturn of the electronic cycle is hitting South Korea and Singapore rather hard & calls for diversification 👈🏻
August Asia exports (shall I say lack of it) %YoY:
South Korea -13.6 🇰🇷
Indonesia -10 🇮🇩
Singapore -8.9 🇸🇬
India -6.1 🇮🇳
China -1 🇨🇳
Vietnam +4.5 🇻🇳
August Imports 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
South Korea -13.6 🇰🇷
Indonesia -10 🇮🇩
Singapore -8.9 🇸🇬
India -6.1 🇮🇳
China -1 🇨🇳
Vietnam +4.5 🇻🇳
August Imports 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
👋🏻 A friendly reminder that we're not deep into H2 2019 & that quest for second half recovery is ever more elusive.
Note this: we will have a very favorable base effect in December 2019 but don't get too excited b/c that is a statistical illusion even if data starts to look OK.
Note this: we will have a very favorable base effect in December 2019 but don't get too excited b/c that is a statistical illusion even if data starts to look OK.
Data out of China yesterday (FAI down, esp for private sector & private investment was only 4.9% & that is NOMINAL so we're looking at very very weak investment growth here).
If u look at Asia import data, then see that China is not the only economy w/ CONTRACTING IMPORT DEMAND.
If u look at Asia import data, then see that China is not the only economy w/ CONTRACTING IMPORT DEMAND.
Investment is the FUTURE OF GROWTH. I started flagging contracting Korea investment before exports actually COLLAPSED & u can see that if Korean firms reduce cap ex then u know that future output will be reduced.
China is reducing cap ex in the private sector. State not up much.
China is reducing cap ex in the private sector. State not up much.
And it is not the only one. ASIA INVESTMENT IS DOWN & has been the case for a while now & don't forget that Korea leads the region & INVESTMENT CONTRACTED IN Q2 2018 & HAS BEEN SINCE.
Look at regional investment! Why is it down? Electronic downturn, China, EU, Japan, EM slowdown
Look at regional investment! Why is it down? Electronic downturn, China, EU, Japan, EM slowdown
Asia investment in real GDP in Q2 '19 %YoY (Q2 19 vs Q2 18):
Hong Kong -12.1
Philippines -4.8%
Australia -3.7
Korea -1.9% (📉 since Q218)
Singapore -0.3%
Malaysia -0.6% from -3.5%
Japan +2% (base effect)
Thailand 2% (📉
India 4% 📉
Indonesia 5% 📉
Taiwan +7.5% 👑policy driven👏🏻
Hong Kong -12.1
Philippines -4.8%
Australia -3.7
Korea -1.9% (📉 since Q218)
Singapore -0.3%
Malaysia -0.6% from -3.5%
Japan +2% (base effect)
Thailand 2% (📉
India 4% 📉
Indonesia 5% 📉
Taiwan +7.5% 👑policy driven👏🏻
Look at Taiwan! It is doing fine b/c of policy to reshore investment (3-yr “Action Plan for Welcoming Overseas Taiwanese Businesses to Return to Invest in Taiwan”). Been helpful in Taiwan offsetting the impact of the decline of the electronic cycle and cross-fire of trade-war!👏🏻
Question: What is missing from this list?
Vietnam 🇻🇳 and China 🇨🇳
Why? Both have legacy of command economies (communism) & so DON'T DISCLOSE QUARTERLY EXPENDITURE DATA.
We only have annual data so no investment & we get production data. Notice that VN & China have GDP targets.
Vietnam 🇻🇳 and China 🇨🇳
Why? Both have legacy of command economies (communism) & so DON'T DISCLOSE QUARTERLY EXPENDITURE DATA.
We only have annual data so no investment & we get production data. Notice that VN & China have GDP targets.
