Thread by @cchukudebelu

Nigerian crude is light and sweet, but Shale oil is also light and sweet. In fact, what US refineries need more of, are sour crudes - because they were configured for that

Since Venezuelan sour crudes are off the market, US might configure its refineries to handle lighter crudes

Secondly, there's been quite a few crude oil discoveries over the past 2 decades in the Western hemisphere (Brazil, Guyana etc.). The Western hemisphere could well be energy independent in future. And since geopolitical risk is minimal, it fits the US just fine.

The Saudis will do anything to ensure that US buys some of their crude, no matter how little - they could go as far as buying stakes in US refiners, to influence the purchase decisions (they are already doing that in Asian). Nigeria can't go that far.

Spend time reading between the lines of this Iran vs Saudi Arabia crisis. When the US was dependent on Middle Eastern energy, its reaction was different. By 2025, US is set to produce more petroleum gas and liquids than Saudi Arabia and Russia, COMBINED.

So the big debate is what to do about the Middle East - abandon it, or engage it (on a case by case basis)?

Saudi Arabia has figured out;
1. It can't defend itself.
2. Israel will be the major driver of US interest in the ME in future.
3. So it has aligned with Israel.

Iran, on the other hand, has made it clear to everyone else in the Gulf that once the US is out of the picture, they are the predominant power. UAE has figured that out and is mellow. Kuwait is chill.

Absent the US, Saudi Arabia will fall in line.

The likes of Erdogan and Putin have figured out that US won't be engaged in the Middle East (at current levels) indefinitely - so they are maneuvering to carve their own spheres of influence.