So. #Brexit latest. Some signs of increased optimism from 24 hours ago - tho caution urged.
Tl;dr: 'hybrid' landing zone is close for Northern Ireland/Customs, but issues remain on the future declaration (which bears on NI arrangement)
1/Thread
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
Tl;dr: 'hybrid' landing zone is close for Northern Ireland/Customs, but issues remain on the future declaration (which bears on NI arrangement)
1/Thread
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
After very downbeat assesment by @MichelBarnier to EU ambassadors on Sunday, the noises off are suddenly audibly more positive.
Hard details are sparse, but understand that talks are narrowing down on an NI solution./2
Hard details are sparse, but understand that talks are narrowing down on an NI solution./2
@MichelBarnier There appears to be sight of a landing zone between the full Irish Sea Customs border NI originally proposed and the 'Chequers-style 'new customs partnership' for Northern Ireland'. /3
@MichelBarnier Will it yet be possible for @BorisJohnson to say Northern Ireland is in UK customs territory, even though it will - in practice - feel to NI residents as if they are in the EU's. The so-called "Schrödinger's Brexit".
Or as one source puts it, rather elegantly... /4
Or as one source puts it, rather elegantly... /4
@MichelBarnier @BorisJohnson But don't get the champers out quite yet.
Three other sources acknowledge progress, but aren't banking a deal.
"Let's not over do it" ; Don't "underestimate challenges involved"
Undeniably, on balance more positive noises....but there's a 'but'.../5
Three other sources acknowledge progress, but aren't banking a deal.
"Let's not over do it" ; Don't "underestimate challenges involved"
Undeniably, on balance more positive noises....but there's a 'but'.../5
It seems as if the hybrid customs solution would be eased if EU and UK agreed at outset that ambition was a 'zero-tariff, zero quota' FTA....a point made here by @RaoulRuparel - the ex @theresa_may adviser who re-mooted Chequers for NI recently /6
@RaoulRuparel @theresa_may @Mij_Europe But there is a problem....no way, it seems EU is gonna make even a commitment to 'zero tariff, zero quota' in Political Declaration without UK recognition that such a deal will required deep Level-Playing Field commitments (ie agree not to undercut EU on enviro/social/state aid/7
@RaoulRuparel @theresa_may @Mij_Europe But of course, if @BorisJohnson dilutes his bucaneering agenda to land the hybrid NI-deal, he risks losing support of ERG and 'clean break Brexiteers' who are wedding to the 'free trade narrative. (Even tho, as @PhilipHammondUK points out, its a chimera)/8
@RaoulRuparel @theresa_may @Mij_Europe @BorisJohnson @PhilipHammondUK This leaves talks on something of a knife-edge, it seems, as Barnier heads to Luxembourg tomorrow to brief minsters at the General Affairs Council.
France particularly anxious on pre-baking out come of future relationship/LPF issues in the divorce deal. /9
France particularly anxious on pre-baking out come of future relationship/LPF issues in the divorce deal. /9
@RaoulRuparel @theresa_may @Mij_Europe @BorisJohnson @PhilipHammondUK This LPF/FTA issue - and views on how serious it is - may account for varying degrees of optimism among different camps.
But there does seem to be political impetus for a deal, if at all possible.
After all, the @BorisJohnson customs pivot has exposed the landing zone/10
But there does seem to be political impetus for a deal, if at all possible.
After all, the @BorisJohnson customs pivot has exposed the landing zone/10
@RaoulRuparel @theresa_may @Mij_Europe @BorisJohnson @PhilipHammondUK And it is hard to see how @BorisJohnson, having made that fundamental concession/admission can really then unmake it.
The 'no deal' and 'alternative arrangements' or 'tech' for the border gambits seem to have been overtaken by reality /11
The 'no deal' and 'alternative arrangements' or 'tech' for the border gambits seem to have been overtaken by reality /11
@RaoulRuparel @theresa_may @Mij_Europe @BorisJohnson @PhilipHammondUK Can a deal be done? I don't know - seems tight ahead of Thursday #EUCO - but @AlbertoNardelli and others already hearing talk of an emergency EUCO ahead of Oct 31 deadline (tho @BorisJohnson will probably have had to ask for extension by then) /12
@RaoulRuparel @theresa_may @Mij_Europe @BorisJohnson @PhilipHammondUK @AlbertoNardelli But if a deal is in sight, it could be a 'flextension' that falls away when a deal is done.
Or the EU response could -possibly - be delayed (not withheld) until result of current talks is known. /13
Or the EU response could -possibly - be delayed (not withheld) until result of current talks is known. /13
@RaoulRuparel @theresa_may @Mij_Europe @BorisJohnson @PhilipHammondUK @AlbertoNardelli But before we get there the customs (+?FTA) and the consent issues need to be nailed down.
If they can be, then, as @SamuelMarcLowe explains to me, it's not impossible that EU could live with the risk of a hybrid solution. /14
If they can be, then, as @SamuelMarcLowe explains to me, it's not impossible that EU could live with the risk of a hybrid solution. /14
He makes the point rather gloriously here...
And explains here that the risk to EU is small in NI-only context, given only large/legit biz can avail themselves of the rebate. In practice it will "feel" like NI in EU customs territory, even if it's not. /16
So. There we have it.
Progress, but not a deal.
Optimism, but not ecstasy.
The FTA/Future issue lingers.
But broadly, it feels as if deal chances have risen. /17
Progress, but not a deal.
Optimism, but not ecstasy.
The FTA/Future issue lingers.
But broadly, it feels as if deal chances have risen. /17
18/ENDS/Night all.
