1/8 #Disinformation & #Misinformation can come in many forms.
One of them is #cherrypicking, where only certain pieces of information are chosen to sell your argument.
Sometimes this presentation is done purely for sensationalism.
Take this Dan Scavino post Trump re-tweeted:
One of them is #cherrypicking, where only certain pieces of information are chosen to sell your argument.
Sometimes this presentation is done purely for sensationalism.
Take this Dan Scavino post Trump re-tweeted:
2/8 Seizing upon this shocking potential revelation, numerous news outlets are broadcasting it as if it were a lock, a definite thing, but if you look more closely at the articles themselves, it turns out to be anything but.
3/8 The numbers come from Moody's Analytics, a poll alla re swift to note has been accurate for 40 years... except in 2016.
That's a very recent & sizable blunder, & though they insist taking into account surprise turnout patterns resolves the issue, it leaves room for doubt.
That's a very recent & sizable blunder, & though they insist taking into account surprise turnout patterns resolves the issue, it leaves room for doubt.
4/8 But assuming they know their stuff, it turns out there are special caveats to these polls (yes, polls, plural). They actually took several polls, based on a variety of factors. They primarily seem to be looking at the economy, & assume historically average Democratic turnout.
5/8 First off, the Trump economy has been in a steady downturn, many groups that propelled Trump to victory are furious with him now, the manufacturing sector was just declared officially in recession, and his #TradeWars have been a disaster. latimes.com/politics/story…
6/8 Secondly, there's the part about "average Democratic turnout." 2018 saw record turnout for an off year election, to a degree that rivaled many presidential election years, and ALL indications are that 2020 will see even greater turnout.
vox.com/policy-and-pol…
vox.com/policy-and-pol…
7/8 Moreover, the articles admit that "if turnout among non-incumbent voters — Democrats & independents — were to match historical highs, the Democratic nominee would win under the stock market & employment models as well as an average of the 3 models." politi.co/2MIWJn7
8/8 In other words. a Trump victory is the long-shot model any way you look at it, even without impeachment effects.
And all of these news outlets should be ashamed of themselves for spreading #Disinformation and #Misinformtion just to get more clicks.
#DemCast #GeeksResist
And all of these news outlets should be ashamed of themselves for spreading #Disinformation and #Misinformtion just to get more clicks.
#DemCast #GeeksResist
