1/ A thread on Saturday’s vote & likely result:
The dust has now settled & it’s pretty clear what the Brexit vote is coming down to Saturday - it’s in Labour hands. Only Labour have the power to control the vote if DUP really vote against it.
Here’s why...
The dust has now settled & it’s pretty clear what the Brexit vote is coming down to Saturday - it’s in Labour hands. Only Labour have the power to control the vote if DUP really vote against it.
Here’s why...
2/
It’s clear ERG don’t like the deal but also clear they’ve been given a nod by Johnson that vote for this & he’ll dump the “Level Playing Field” etc. once trade talks start. For ERG dumping NI for this is a price worth paying.
If this story holds - ERG will vote WA thru.
It’s clear ERG don’t like the deal but also clear they’ve been given a nod by Johnson that vote for this & he’ll dump the “Level Playing Field” etc. once trade talks start. For ERG dumping NI for this is a price worth paying.
If this story holds - ERG will vote WA thru.
3/
Next the Tory “Rebels”.
As Letwin, Soanes etc have explicitly stated their problem was no deal - while it’s possible one or other won’t vote for it in addition to Dominic Grieve the majority will vote Johnson’s WA - & in any case they’ll be out if they don’t.
Next the Tory “Rebels”.
As Letwin, Soanes etc have explicitly stated their problem was no deal - while it’s possible one or other won’t vote for it in addition to Dominic Grieve the majority will vote Johnson’s WA - & in any case they’ll be out if they don’t.
4/
Next the “hard core Labour Leavers” - Mann or Campbell etc.
They’ll vote with govt. also clear the party has no leverage over them as most are retiring. I put this group at circa 4-6.
If you’ve been following you’ll know govt still around 8-12 short.
Only 1 group left...
Next the “hard core Labour Leavers” - Mann or Campbell etc.
They’ll vote with govt. also clear the party has no leverage over them as most are retiring. I put this group at circa 4-6.
If you’ve been following you’ll know govt still around 8-12 short.
Only 1 group left...
5/
Finally - the “worried about their Leave voting seats Labour MPs” - Nandy, Flint etc
These are circa 12-17 mostly fmr Remain voting MPs who believe they’ll lose their seats if they and/or Labour “stop Brexit”.
If over half vote Brexit Johnson gets WA thru.
2 options here..
Finally - the “worried about their Leave voting seats Labour MPs” - Nandy, Flint etc
These are circa 12-17 mostly fmr Remain voting MPs who believe they’ll lose their seats if they and/or Labour “stop Brexit”.
If over half vote Brexit Johnson gets WA thru.
2 options here..
6/
a. If they know Labour will expel them if they back Johnson their worries over their seats become moot - they’ll mostly vote against & Johnson defeated.
b. If they’re not worried - enough will back Govt & Johnson’s WA passes.
So 3 & half years in it comes down to Corbyn.
a. If they know Labour will expel them if they back Johnson their worries over their seats become moot - they’ll mostly vote against & Johnson defeated.
b. If they’re not worried - enough will back Govt & Johnson’s WA passes.
So 3 & half years in it comes down to Corbyn.
7/
Don’t waste your time trying to convince Mann or Campbell - they’re gone.
It’s the “Flint, Nandy, Kinnock & Onn etc. group” that are the swing vote.
Remain can lose 1 or 2 of these. If over half of this group votes for Johnson....the game is over.
Don’t waste your time trying to convince Mann or Campbell - they’re gone.
It’s the “Flint, Nandy, Kinnock & Onn etc. group” that are the swing vote.
Remain can lose 1 or 2 of these. If over half of this group votes for Johnson....the game is over.
