The dust has now settled & it’s pretty clear what the Brexit vote is coming down to Saturday - it’s in Labour hands. Only Labour have the power to control the vote if DUP really vote against it.
Here’s why...
It’s clear ERG don’t like the deal but also clear they’ve been given a nod by Johnson that vote for this & he’ll dump the “Level Playing Field” etc. once trade talks start. For ERG dumping NI for this is a price worth paying.
If this story holds - ERG will vote WA thru.
Next the Tory “Rebels”.
As Letwin, Soanes etc have explicitly stated their problem was no deal - while it’s possible one or other won’t vote for it in addition to Dominic Grieve the majority will vote Johnson’s WA - & in any case they’ll be out if they don’t.
Next the “hard core Labour Leavers” - Mann or Campbell etc.
They’ll vote with govt. also clear the party has no leverage over them as most are retiring. I put this group at circa 4-6.
If you’ve been following you’ll know govt still around 8-12 short.
Only 1 group left...
Finally - the “worried about their Leave voting seats Labour MPs” - Nandy, Flint etc
These are circa 12-17 mostly fmr Remain voting MPs who believe they’ll lose their seats if they and/or Labour “stop Brexit”.
If over half vote Brexit Johnson gets WA thru.
2 options here..
a. If they know Labour will expel them if they back Johnson their worries over their seats become moot - they’ll mostly vote against & Johnson defeated.
b. If they’re not worried - enough will back Govt & Johnson’s WA passes.
So 3 & half years in it comes down to Corbyn.
Don’t waste your time trying to convince Mann or Campbell - they’re gone.
It’s the “Flint, Nandy, Kinnock & Onn etc. group” that are the swing vote.
Remain can lose 1 or 2 of these. If over half of this group votes for Johnson....the game is over.