, 5 tweets, 1 min read
The important thing to note about Syria and the process it took to reach this point is that EVERYTHING was necessary.

Yes, even the missile strikes that doom criers shrieked about endlessly.
The difference between Obama and Trump in terms of military action was that Obama muzzled the military, and every decision was framed through public perception and approval. Success was less important than keeping Obama’s job approval up.
For Trump, job approval is pointless. It cratered at first, but every point gained since then is hardened unshakable support. There are no true long term dips in his approval ratings anymore.

This means that there was no risk for him unleashing the US military.
The real key to solving Syria was letting ALL the players know that the US was the big dog in town, the real one in charge.

This meant missile strikes on assad’s airfields.

This meant destroying a battalion of Russian ‘mercenaries’ at Deir ez-Zor.

This meant sanctioning Turkey
The message had to be clear: no more fucking around, because the US is not fucking around.

Everyone got the message, which means peace was the only option left. A peace that allows everyone, Russia, Syria, Turkey, and the Kurds to save face.

And leaves Iran out entirely. /e
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