Maybe I am too scarred by Brexit.
Maybe I am too cynical.
* BUT *
Something nags at me about this sort of assumption that the Tories will fall in behind the Lib Dem / SNP plan for a General Election 9 Dec.
Maybe I am too cynical.
* BUT *
Something nags at me about this sort of assumption that the Tories will fall in behind the Lib Dem / SNP plan for a General Election 9 Dec.
Even when something has been in Johnson's interests, he has not ever taken the obvious or the avoidance-of-conflict route.
Since he has become PM there has always been a trick, a provocation, a challenge to the Commons or the EU.
Since he has become PM there has always been a trick, a provocation, a challenge to the Commons or the EU.
Is he just going to go "ok, so my FTPA effort failed. I will back what the Lib Dems and SNP are proposing."
I can't see it.
Not because it would be a foolish call, but because it would be so out of character.
I can't see it.
Not because it would be a foolish call, but because it would be so out of character.
Also as Lewis Goodall points out, the current line on General Election and the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) makes no sense at all:
So what silly wheeze are we missing?
Option 1
The Benn Act obliges the Govt to agree to a 3 month extension. That's what the EU offered. But the UK formally has to consent to this, and hasn't yet.
Could Johnson resign today, so Raab (1st Sec of State) signs the request? Johnson avoids the ditch
🤔 VERY long shot
The Benn Act obliges the Govt to agree to a 3 month extension. That's what the EU offered. But the UK formally has to consent to this, and hasn't yet.
Could Johnson resign today, so Raab (1st Sec of State) signs the request? Johnson avoids the ditch
🤔 VERY long shot
Option 2
The Government takes an approach similar to the Lib Dem / SNP proposal - i.e. one requiring only a Simple Majority - but messes with some other aspect of it (i.e. on the election date, or connecting it to the WAB) forcing everyone bar Tories to oppose it?
POSSIBLE
The Government takes an approach similar to the Lib Dem / SNP proposal - i.e. one requiring only a Simple Majority - but messes with some other aspect of it (i.e. on the election date, or connecting it to the WAB) forcing everyone bar Tories to oppose it?
POSSIBLE
Option 3
All the election stuff was only a cover for the Extension, and the Government - having given Labour a mighty scare - pulls back from the brink and tries WAB ratification again?
LONG SHOT
All the election stuff was only a cover for the Extension, and the Government - having given Labour a mighty scare - pulls back from the brink and tries WAB ratification again?
LONG SHOT
Option 4
It's not the Tories but the Lib Dems and the SNP that are bluffing - once Extension is guaranteed they then aim for a People's Vote again, and a relieved Labour Party now backs this
NO CHANCE - TOO CLASSIC DOM
It's not the Tories but the Lib Dems and the SNP that are bluffing - once Extension is guaranteed they then aim for a People's Vote again, and a relieved Labour Party now backs this
NO CHANCE - TOO CLASSIC DOM
Any other on-the-edge-of-plausible scenarios I am missing?
/ends
/ends
