Thread by @FirasMaksad

Background on PM Hariri resignation (expected):

1- Hariri threat to quit is attempt to pressure Aoun/Bassil/Hezbollah into accepting new cabinet, under his leadership, free of ministers most objectionable to protesters, FM Bassil first among them

reuters.com/article/us-leb…

2- Pres Aoun reportedly told PM Hariri that FM Bassil is redline. "If you want to send Bassil home you might as well go home yourself." Any new gov including both Bassil & Hariri is unlikely to placate public anger or deliver on much promised reforms.

3-Today's ongoing synchronized attacks by pro Hezbollah & Amal black-shirts against protesters is another sign of growing differences amongst the governing coalition on how to proceed. PM Hariri had threatened resignation if violence is employed on protesters.

4- Hezbollah faces tough choices: Sacrifice ur primary Christian ally (Gebran Bassil) by accepting new cabinet lineup; or risk becoming focal point of growing public anger by holding on to Bassil/current gov as country heads towards financial collapse. So far, it chose Bassil.

5- By resigning, Hariri is betting that Hezbollah/Aoun need him to the extent that they would renominate him for PM despite differences. This would potentially improve his bargaining position. However he risk being cut out should they decide to nominate a staunchly pro Hezb Sunni

6- Hariri could be left out of power, with no money, weakened popular support & no regional backing. However, complete deadlock in negotiations with Aoun/Hezbollah, & expected deterioration in streets, appear to be forcing his hand into resignation.

7- Any way you slice it, day 12 of #Lebanon protests is looking like an imp inflection point for PM Hariri, Bassil, Hezbollah & the protesters which are on the receiving end of ongoing violence & intimidation in the streets.

Status quo is untenable. 🇱🇧