Thread by @FirasMaksad

1- As Lebanon currency crises worsens, many asking, is Lebanon too imp too fail? Will Saudi, France, USA or others come to the rescue as they did before?

Short answer: VERY UNLIKELY.

Here's why...

https://twitter.com/AlbinSzakola/status/1178594623255715840

2-Lets start with Saudi, given its history of helping Lebanon. Today Lebanon has President allied to Hezbollah, PM which KSA believes may have helped embezzle billions during last days of King Abdullah & Foreign Minister criticizing it & refusing to even condemn attack on ARAMCO

3- Iran's long shadow over Lebanon aside, Saudi rebalanced away from Levant years ago, focusing on near abroad in Yemen & Iraq. It ignored at least two US requests (at the highest level) to assist Lebanon in past year. Don't hold your breath for Saudi 💰

4- How about France (Lebanon's caring mother)? Surely Paris doesn't want state collapse & refugees leaving Lebanon for EU. Perhaps, but France already did its part with Paris 1, P2, P3 & P4 (Cedre) donor conferences. Beirut officials now simply want💰with no reform. Unlikely.

5-Okay what about US assist? 4sure US doesn't want another failed state in MENA on Israel border. Well, US cut all funding to Pal. Authority & that's within Israel. So don't bank on this argument. Requests to have KSA help didn't materialize & Trump not fan of foreign aid. So..

6- Other? Maybe Qatar (to spite KSA)? Well there are no signs Qatar made good on June promise to invest (not aid) in Lebanon bonds.

"Two sources familiar with... Lebanese dollar-denominated debt said there had been no sign of a major bond purchase"

reuters.com/article/us-qat…

7- In January Lebanon's foreign minister boasted to CNN that he & fellow Lebanese politicians can teach Washington & London “how to run a country without a budget,” just as he warned "financial meltdown in Lebanon could send waves of refugees into Europe"
english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/…

8- This mix of extreme hubris, coupled with thinly veiled extortion tactics, from Lebanon politicians not gonna work no more. Their people & the world sees them for what they are. Lebanon NOT too imp to fail & any chance at saving it requires immediate & drastic change.