Thread by @jonworth

--- What's happening ---

Farage has announced there will be no Brexit Party candidate in the 317 constituencies won by the Tories in 2017

--- What we know ---

If the Brexit Party runs it takes more votes away from the Conservatives in a constituency than it does from Labour

--- What that means (I) ---

In places where there is a Tory MP currently, and it's a Tory-Labour marginal, and the Brexit Party is standing down its candidate, that probably makes life easier for the incumbent Tory MP

--- What that means (II) ---

In places where there is a Labour MP currently, and it's a Labour-Tory marginal, and the Brexit Party is NOT standing down its candidate, that probably makes life easier for the incumbent Labour MP

--- What we don't know (I) ---

The extent to which Brexit Party not running in 317 constituencies will mean they focus human and financial resources better on the places where they do run

--- What we don't know (II) ---

Now there is effectively a Brexit Party - Conservative alliance, does this scare moderate Tories further away from the Conservatives? Remember a good quarter of Tory voters voted Remain in 2016

--- What we don't know (III) ---

In places where there is no Brexit Party candidate, how many of its possible voters simply stay at home? We know more of them will vote Tory than Labour, but *how* many? We do not know

--- What we don't know (IV) ---

Is this the thin end of the wedge? Having stood down in 317 constituencies, what about in Labour-held Labour-Tory marginals? Time will tell

--- What to say ---

It's too early to understand quite what the impact of this decision by Farage will be

--- What not to say ---

This is a game changer

/ends

Oops there is more

--- What we don't know (V) ---

What will UKIP do? (Remember them?) If they stand where the Brexit Party is *not* standing, will any vote go to them? Their statement is inconclusive ukip.org/national-ukip-…