Thread by @Brad_Setser

How long can the world's largest economy go without any real export growth?

Excluding petrol (which has done well) and ag (which hasn't), U.S. real goods exports are below where they were five years ago ...

(1/x)

Real import growth has stalled this year, but that's after several years of solid growth (tariffs slowed imports this year, the stimulus juiced imports before)

(2/x)

There is a view -- particularly prevalent in the UK in my experience -- that the exchange rate doesn't impact trade in a world of globalized supply chains.

That view is hard to square with the US data. US exports (ex petrol) stalled when the dollar soared.

(3/x)

And for those who are especially interested in tourism trade and US IP exports to low tax jurisdictions, adding services trade in doesn't change the story.

(travel is a big part of services, and it is notoriously exchange rate sensitive)

(4/x)

Adding petrol in does change things a bit: petrol exports are up, petrol imports are down.

But I would challenge those who argue that the oil boom has diversified the US economy, as higher oil production has coincided with weak trade performance elsewhere

5/5