Thread by @MacroTechnicals

MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment as of 15Nov19 wk46

1/n

• Global RiskOnOff mixed
• US stocks new ATH
• China deal hope, 3rd FED cut, seasonality all lined up right now
• Mexico CB 25bp cut was the 46th global cut overall in this cycle
• Credits slightly wider

2/n Global markets momentum / trends / exhaustion scores update wk46

3/n global markets YTD update wk46

4/n global CB, 2Y, 10Y, Curves update wk46

• BDM cut 25bp
• NZ M.PMI jumped to 52.6 6M H, new orders even to 17M H
• "Club Med" IT/ES/PT wider yields
• core markets saw bull-flattening

5/n BDM Mexico's cut was the 46th overall global cut in this cycle (vs 4 rare hikes)

the global slowdown brought every central bank quickly to their knees.

6/n FEDs O/N is currently rolling at $132b and terms at $68b , total $200b ... thats a 15% or $34b reduction

FED also released a new statement about going forward through year ultimo.

7/n FEDs 3x 25bp cuts re-steepening of the yieldcurve helped banks momentum too

8/n SPX seasonality (which didn't work 2018 as FED hiked Oct+Dec and had really bad narrative), seem to work in 2019.

the pattern is similar, but this year it's like 2x the usual scale.

9/n there is only a vague seasonality for VIX, but it's certainly abnormal low now for this time of the year. FED is supporting the market from all angles, everyone got long stonks, and VIX shorts are big.

10/n SPX from a different perspective, vola sliding down, 25DRR totally unchanged with the recent rally

11/n Fear & Greed vs SPX RSI = catching up and getting hot

12/n overall... in this oscillating cycle overlay of 4 leading indicators [ where they lead others on a rotational basis ] , Credit leading, SPX leading, Biz confidence starts to rebound apparently, and previous bond yields FOMO has reversed

13/n and now FORMULA 1

https://twitter.com/F1/status/1196114361766555649

ENJOY the rest of the Sunday x

@threadreaderapp unroll . danke.