BREAKING NEWS:
NEW MRP ANALYSIS: Tactical voting in just 36 marginal seats could block Tory majority
Details to follow...
NEW MRP ANALYSIS: Tactical voting in just 36 marginal seats could block Tory majority
Details to follow...
Best for Britain has today released its final round of MRP data before the #GE2019, showing the Conservatives’ majority has halved in the space of a fortnight. It would now take as little as 40,704 tactical votes across just 36 marginal seats to prevent a Conservative majority.
The seat-by-seat analysis of 28,272 British adults was carried out between 4 November and 5 December by Focaldata for Best for Britain.
⚠️WITHOUT tactical voting, Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru would hold a combined 286 seats. This scenario would see the Conservative Party win 345 seats and a majority in Parliament.⚠️
(Please refer to GetVoting.org)
(Please refer to GetVoting.org)
However, while the data currently predicts a majority for Boris Johnson’s party, they will be worried to see the size of that majority has been cut in half in just a fortnight (from Best for Britain’s November MRP, which predicted the Conservatives could win up to 366 seats).
ℹ️ Factoring in the possibility of a supply and confidence arrangement with the Democratic Unionist Party, pro-EU parties need to take just 36 seats that are currently predicted to be won by the Conservatives to prevent a Johnson majority.
❗️We have therefore identified the 36 seats where the chances of pro-EU voters successfully using their votes tactically to prevent a Conservative victory are highest.
It would take less than 2,500 tactical votes in these seats to prevent the Conservative Party winning. ❗️
It would take less than 2,500 tactical votes in these seats to prevent the Conservative Party winning. ❗️
In Dewsbury it would take just 82 Green and Lib Dem voters backing Labour to prevent the Conservative Party winning the seat. Other seats on the list include West Bromwich West, Carshalton and Wallington and Sedgefield.
(Charts display without tactical voting, and then with.)
(Charts display without tactical voting, and then with.)
ℹ️ Because of the smaller majority predicted for the Conservatives, Best for Britain now estimates it would take as little as 40,704 pro-EU voters nationally using their vote tactically to prevent a Tory majority.
❗️FINAL RECOMMENDATIONS❗️
The data has been used to inform Best for Britain’s final tactical voting recommendations at getvoting.org.
The data has been used to inform Best for Britain’s final tactical voting recommendations at getvoting.org.
Commenting, Best for Britain CEO Naomi Smith @pimlicat said:
"The Tories will be quaking in their boots today.
"Just a fortnight ago Boris Johnson was on course to win a landslide, but weeks of telling lies and ducking interviews have caught up with him.
(continued...)
"The Tories will be quaking in their boots today.
"Just a fortnight ago Boris Johnson was on course to win a landslide, but weeks of telling lies and ducking interviews have caught up with him.
(continued...)
...
"Boris Johnson now faces the very real possibility of remainers in just thirty-six marginal seats using tactical voting to cannibalise what's left of his expected majority.
(continued...)
"Boris Johnson now faces the very real possibility of remainers in just thirty-six marginal seats using tactical voting to cannibalise what's left of his expected majority.
(continued...)
...
"This election is on a knife-edge, and if enough remainers hold their nose and vote for the candidate with the best chance of stopping the Tories in their seat we're heading for a hung Parliament and a final say referendum."
GetVoting.org
"This election is on a knife-edge, and if enough remainers hold their nose and vote for the candidate with the best chance of stopping the Tories in their seat we're heading for a hung Parliament and a final say referendum."
GetVoting.org
