So: the Iowa Caucus is going to be an absolute bonkers trainwreck that will make 2016 look like a mild row at the summer camp.
That's me, far left, tonight. @goetz_hal and @johndeeth put on a good training, but it leaves me deeply pessimistic.
@goetz_hal @johndeeth The @iowademocrats and folks like Hal and John are doing everything they can within the constraints they've been handed, but we're deep into, or beyond, 'one legged man in an ass kicking contest' territory here.
@goetz_hal @johndeeth @iowademocrats I shared the training program with Rube Goldberg, hoping for a pithy comment. Perhaps he'll have one later, but he's presently having a serious case of the vapors on the fainting couch.
@goetz_hal @johndeeth @iowademocrats This regime won't threaten #FITN, for two reasons. First off, the IDP is correct they shouldn't be called "ballots." No, these are more like that beer-ringed bar nap that you scrawled your booze run list on.
@goetz_hal @johndeeth @iowademocrats Secondly, we may not survive the experience. I say this as someone who has volunteered to be a precinct chair. I was troubled by the outlines, but now that I've seen under the hood, I'm reaching for my tranqs.
@goetz_hal @johndeeth @iowademocrats My county, Johnson County, is an outlier for a number of reasons: lots of people, lots of Democrats, high student population, energized folk &c &c &c. But let's use my precinct as a more typical illustration.
@goetz_hal @johndeeth @iowademocrats We're projected to have 193 participants. There were probably 25-30 of us in the training tonight, and even that was bumpy. There was ongoing and endemic difficulty in following the "wait for breaks, please, for questions" directive.
@goetz_hal @johndeeth @iowademocrats Of course, that was not only an instruction for the evening, but a suggested instruction for each of us as we chair our own caucuses.
@goetz_hal @johndeeth @iowademocrats So I'm expecting 193 guests in February. Perhaps half of them will have never caucused before. Worse, perhaps half of them will have. Befuddled newcomers will be jostled by grizzled veterans who object to this not being the Way It Always Was.
@goetz_hal @johndeeth @iowademocrats [This Tweet intentionally left blank, as the author collects another beer and smokes a cigarette. Your patience is valued, and desired upon 3 February.]
@goetz_hal @johndeeth @iowademocrats To his great credit, John's been raising the alarm for a long while. I'm a latecomer, and my life is going to be much easier than his.
@goetz_hal @johndeeth @iowademocrats So. 193-ish. As chair, I'm expected to maintain physical and personal custody of 193-ish preference slips, hand them out myself, instruct 193 tired and distracted and passionate and inpatient and wonderfully organized Democrats into the correct use of these things.
@goetz_hal @johndeeth @iowademocrats It turns out the correct use of these things isn't going to be a simple matter for many folks. The branch diagram is extensive.
@goetz_hal @johndeeth @iowademocrats Anyway, it's going to be a tremendous charlie foxtrot I'm afraid. As I said, my own particular case is moderate.
I don't care as to speculate as to who John was in a previous life, but I wouldn't be surprised if karma pulled this on him:
By the way, 500+ isn't a stretch. In Johnson County, 19 precincts are projected to have 490+.
So it's going to be one long night and then we can all get on with it, right?
Er, no.
Er, no.
As someone who hates the caucus and is ambivalent at best about Iowa going first, it brings me no pleasure to predict 2020 will kill the Iowa Caucus. Because the caucus itself is just the beginning.
Previously, only delegate totals were released. This go-'round, "raw vote totals" will also be. I'm guessing this means one, two or even three sets of numbers, in addition to the delegate totals.
Dizzy yet?
Dizzy yet?
You'll have first preference vote totals. With a field this big, most precincts will realign once non-viable candidates are dropped after the first bal... preference.
At least viability is easy, right? 15%!
Nope, not always. Depends on how many delegates a particular precinct is allotted. Viability can be anywhere from 15-25%, or not exist at all in single-delegate precincts. I think.
Nope, not always. Depends on how many delegates a particular precinct is allotted. Viability can be anywhere from 15-25%, or not exist at all in single-delegate precincts. I think.
So most precincts are going to realign and have a second set of raw vote totals. And in (hopefully very, very) rare circumstances, there may be a limited third preference.
So: up to three raw vote numbers, with two being the most likely outcome, followed by one, followed by three. This is by precinct, by the way, so you're going to be looking at over a thousand separate results.
The final vote, preference, whatever, determines delegates.
So this is how I think the 2020 Caucus kills the Iowa Caucus.
It's going to be worthless.
It's going to be worthless.
Take the traditional "three tickets out of Iowa" narrative and throw in up to three additional raw vote counts. I suspect most media will focus on the first raw vote count, as opposed to delegates or trying to unwind the second or third ballots.
For what it's worth, I think that's right, as it most closely expresses what Iowa Democrats want before getting hopelessly befuddled by tactical process. If the process were straightforward enough someone with less than PhD in math could figure it out, maybe I'd feel different.
So there's no narrative coming out of Iowa. Or a hundred. But the nightmare isn't over yet.
We're getting to that, thanks for reminding me.
So Iowa is worthless, right, and now we're at the *CONTESTED CONVENTION*.
Hoboy, I'm pouring a whiskey for this one.
Hoboy, I'm pouring a whiskey for this one.
So whatever narrative, if any, that came out of Iowa was based on some raw vote total, not delegates. But it's delegates that matter at the convention, and due to another rule change...
...delegates awarded caucus night are going to be "sticky," and potentially sticky to candidates who dropped out months prior to the convention.
Queue superdelegates. And by 'queue,' I mean, get them ready. Off stage right, please. Don't need them yet, but need them soon, as they don't get to vote first ballot at the convention.
You also into the brown liquor yet?
You also into the brown liquor yet?
So imagine a first ballot something like 30% progressive, 30% conservative, the remaining 40% a muddle. "30% progressive" might mean 30% Warren, 30% Sanders or some mixture of the two; same for the conservative boat.
[Since I had a riff on naming right earlier: This Tweet sponsored by Makers Mark. This Thread sponsored by Hamms. This account sponsored by Marlboro.]
The 2d-438th ballots are a muddled mess. AOC's granddaughter prevails on the 439th, after the seas have swallowed everything but Iowa.
Wrapping up: is this a black swan? Yes. Things almost certainly won't be this bad in the aggregate. But things will probably be worse in smaller cases.
Back to @johndeeth: imagine ten or so precincts in the state, ten of the largest ones, where things just absolutely go off the rails. Up until now this thread has been fancy, but let's talk about what almost surely *will* happen.
@johndeeth Doors at 6:30 on a Monday night. In some of these megaprecincts people will be checking in until after 8, maybe later.
@johndeeth Once you're checked in, where the hell do you go? There aren't a lot of venues that can hold, let alone comfortably hold, 500-1,000 people. And now you've got to wait for everyone behind you.
@johndeeth Now it's 10p and everyone is checked in. Finally! But now Deeth or some other poor sonofabitch who's just trying to make this whole democracy business work has to hand you your chit. One person, 1,000 preference cards.
@johndeeth Wait some more.
@johndeeth While you're waiting, say a few rosaries, and count your absolute lucky stars you're not Deeth.
@johndeeth OK! Preference cards are out! Time to align!
Now you've got 1,000 people in a space designed for 300, all trying to jostle past one another into candidate camps.
Now you've got 1,000 people in a space designed for 300, all trying to jostle past one another into candidate camps.
@johndeeth Someone will get trampled to death and the state fire marshal will be in deep doo doo.
@johndeeth OK, so now you and your 999 besties have just done the Chinese fire drill. Good job!
Now wait while the caucus chair counts each and every one of your beautiful heads and does some elaborate math to determine viability.
Now wait while the caucus chair counts each and every one of your beautiful heads and does some elaborate math to determine viability.
@johndeeth If you're lucky, if you're damned lucky, your preferred candidate is found to be viable, and you, not being a sadist, if you've listened to, understood, and followed the directions, if you want to go, you can sign your chit and go.
@johndeeth In the largest precincts, the previous tweet is the largest fantasy in this thread. Something will almost assuredly go wrong.
@johndeeth So now of your 999 friends, 100 have left in disgust, 300 have left after their first preference was locked in as viable, eight have died of old age and one died of measles, which is of concern to the remaining 591 of you.
@johndeeth It's midnight now, by the way. In most advanced countries, you can show up and vote in a few minutes, but in Iowa we make it like date night when you're going to do the entire Star Wars franchise in a single sitting.
@johndeeth Anyway, I could go on, but none of this is less than likely. It's going to be bad.
@johndeeth OK, I'll go on just a little further. This kludge not only makes it impossible for some and uncomfortable for many to participate, but it's also ruinously expensive.
@johndeeth Time to circle back to this: what can you do?
@johndeeth The above quote-tweet comes from a campaign operative. And you know what? The campaigns are going to be at least as important as the IDP and chairs and other non-affiliated volunteers. Read up!
@johndeeth I would strongly encourage anyone who is going to be within a timezone of the caucus to take this training. iowademocraticparty.mindflash.com/PublicCoursePa…
@johndeeth Each campaign needs to identify their own captains and volunteers and get those folks in touch with the precinct chairs.
@johndeeth I understand @JayInslee is developing a carbon-footprint-calculator for caucusfolk, John.
@johndeeth @JayInslee It's going to be absolutely necessary for campaigns to be working closely with caucus chairs. We're going to have to lean on you, and we're going to need you to understand what's happening, and we're going to need you to get your partisans to be patient.
@johndeeth @JayInslee Please tell anyone and everyone to pre-register. IDP is handling this and I don't have a link yet, but it will streamline registration at the caucus site. This isn't voter registration, by the way.
@johndeeth @JayInslee Do you need to update your *voter* registration? For the love of all holy, do that by year-end! Otherwise your county auditor (also saw @jcauditor tonight) will be chasing duplicate registrations all over god's green earth for months.
@johndeeth @JayInslee @jcauditor You know things are dire when Deeth and I agree mere seconds from one another.
@johndeeth @JayInslee @jcauditor Subthread here on why the caucuses are past time for retirement here. I think I've made these points enough elsewhere to simply point here with approval.
@johndeeth @JayInslee @jcauditor Any other loose ends? I'm sure I'm missing some. A few final conclusions while everyone has a moment to chime in.
@johndeeth @JayInslee @jcauditor 1. In the best case, the 2020 Iowa Caucus is going to be a mess. In the middling case, a disaster. In the worst case... I daren't consider it. Ergo...
2. There are things are can all do to encourage the best case. Please do those things.
2. There are things are can all do to encourage the best case. Please do those things.
@johndeeth @JayInslee @jcauditor 3. Patience is one of those things.
4. Patience counts twice.
5. There will be no narrative out of Iowa and probably no fewer than six. Choose Your Own Adventure.
6. The caucus system is not tenable.
7. Patience counts thrice.
4. Patience counts twice.
5. There will be no narrative out of Iowa and probably no fewer than six. Choose Your Own Adventure.
6. The caucus system is not tenable.
7. Patience counts thrice.
@johndeeth @JayInslee @jcauditor Final takeaway, #8: Nobody knows anything. Be kind, be well, do well.
@johndeeth @JayInslee @jcauditor It's disappointing this isn't some special mayor power, that anyone can do it, but anyway:
@threadreaderapp, I call upon ye, #unroll.
#30#
@threadreaderapp, I call upon ye, #unroll.
#30#
