Thread by @henryolsenEPPC

Tweetstorm on #UKElection with predictions -

I have looked at every seat in the YouGov MRP issued on 10 December. That model, based on a poll of 100,000 residents of GB (No NI), had the Conservative lead at 9%. I looked at every seat and compared the Tory lead with that. 1/x

Based on that, the Tories need roughly a 6.5% national lead to get a bare majority of seats. Here's their estimated total at each level of popular vote lead:

+11 - 354, +10 - 348, +9 - 346, +8 - 338, +7, 332, +6 - 320

2/x

Here's the seats in the cusp range of Tory majority a hung parliament (the seats where the Tory lead evaporates in the +6-8 region).

Losses - Aberconwy, Aberdeen S, Vale of Glamorgan, Banff&Buchan, Harrow East, Chingford, Ayr Carrick, MK North, Hendon, Cheltenham

3/x

Lost Gains - Great Grimsby, Wrexham, Dagenham & Rainham, Sedgefield, Lanark & Hamilton East, Keighley, Bolsover, Crewe & Nantwich, Ipswich.

The first group are Tory-held seats they could lose; the second are non-Tory held seats they can gain.

4/x

So if the exit poll forecasts a Tory lead in the 6-7.5% range, these are the seats to watch. If the Tories lose most of the them, it's a hung parliament. If they win most, they have a small majority.

5/x

Again, this is simply my comparison of the projected YouGov MRP Tory lead/trailing margin in seat compared to the YouGov MRP national Tory vote lead. Doing this lets me see what seats slip to or away from the Tories as their national lead rises or falls.

6/x

Here are the seats at each level of the estimated Tory national lead they need to capture the seat:

Tory +11 -

Gains - Hyndburn, Stoke C, Bury N, Workington, Dewsbury
Losses - Angus, Chipping Barnet, Putney, South Cambridgeshire

7/x

Tory +10 -

Gains - Warrington S, Clwyd S
Losses - Renfrewshire E, Winchester, Gordon

Tory +9 -

Gains - Wolverhampton SW, Stockton S, Vale of Clwyd, Bedford, Delyn
Losses -Ochil & S Perthshire, E Devon, Moray

8/x

Tory +8 -

Gains - Great Grimsby, Wrexham, Dagenham, Sedgefield, Lanark & Hamilton E
Losses - Aberconwy, Aberdeen S

Tory +7 -

Gains - Bolsover, Keighley
Losses - Vale of Glamorgan, Banff & Buchan, Harrow E, Chingford, Ayr Carrick, MK N, Hendon, Cheltenham

9/x

Tory +6 -

Gains - Crewe & Nantwich, Ipswich
Losses - Hastings & Rye, Norwich N

Tory +5 -

Gains - Scunthorpe
Losses - Reading W

Tory +4 -

Gains - Bishop Auckland, Blackpool S, Rother Valley, Wolv NE, West Bromwich W
Losses - MK S, Guildford, Cheadle

10/x

A couple of additions to the foregoing -

Add Esher & Walton to potential Tory losses at Tory +7; Bolton NE to potential Tory gains at Tory +9, and Lincoln to potential Tory gains at Tory +10.

Tory +3 -

Gains - Stoke N, Colne Valley, Darlington
Losses - Cities of London & Westminster, W Aberdeenshire, Morecambe, St. Ives, Lewes

Tory +2 -

Gains - Bassetlaw, Bury S
Losses - Worcester, Watford, Calder Valley, Dumfriess & Galloway, Presli Pembrokeshire

12/x

Tory +1 or tie -

Gains - Ashfield, Barrow & Furness, Eastbourne, Penistone & S, Derby N, Dudley N, Brecon & Rad, N Norfolk, Wakefield, Peterborough, Don Valley

Losses - Pudsey, Crawley (reverse this with the +2 above - my mistake).

13/x

I might have missed a few seats - I did this all by hand and 632 seats are a lot to keep track of. I am also not tracking seat changes between the non-Tory parties (SNP, Labour, Lib Dems, PC, and Greens) since those don't affect the ability of the Tories to form gov't.

14/x

What's my prediction? I have a hunch this is going to be like the 1980 US election, when people who were fed up embraced Reagan despite their Democratic heritage. So everyone was shocked when he won so big and the GOP won the Senate for the first time since 1954.

15/x

If that happens tonight, then the Tory margin will be closer to 10-12 and the Tories will break 350, and maybe 360, seats.

OTOH, if my hunch is wrong then it will be because of high youth turnout and some Brexit Party voters deciding they just can't leave Labour.

16/x

If that happens the Tory margin could fall to as little as 4% and their seats will melt away. Hard to see them dropping under 300, but maybe a bottom of 310 and not enough to form government even with the DUP. The rough model I'm using has Tories on 312 seats at +4%.

17/x

I'll be live tweeting tonight, so follow me if you want to see how this model plays out in practice!

18/18