Those who supported #impeachment long before the UKR scandal emerged are being proven correct. W/out #impeachment, Trump intended to frame the Dems as corrupt, flip the script on the Mueller report, run a racist & revanchist cmpgn and ride a good economy to win.
@realDonaldTrump had it all planned out. He concocted the UKR scandal as a 'two-fer': undermine Mueller's findings by promoting the Manafort-Kilimnick conspiracy theory that UKR, not RU, hacked the DNC server & damage Biden, so as to pick his preferred Dem nominee: Warren/Bernie.
That's why @realDonaldTrump & @rudygiuliani worked feverishly to extort Zelensky. He wanted that dirt now to launch a broadside at Biden this fall in order to weaken him and strengthen Warren/Sanders. #Remove
@realdonaldtrump also wanted to provide fodder for AG Barr to prosecute members of the Obama Administration and sell the narrative that the Mueller investigation was a 'hoax', that Trump and Putin were framed, and that the Dems are 'corrupt' #impeachment
It's a neo-fascist narrative that @realdonaldtrump was quite confident of selling amidst a good economy and a pliant and gullible media. #Impeachmas
The WB changed that, exposed the scheme, and it all fell apart. For her part, @SpeakerPelosi was easily able to convince moderate Dems to support #impeachment for 1 reason: Trump was trying to take out their preferred candidate who gave them the best chance to win: @joeBiden.
@HouseDemocrats would not have impeached based on the Mueller Report, b/c it was largely confined to past acts. But the UKR scandal proved the point Mueller made in his July hearing: the threat is ongoing. It was Trump's attempt to cheat in the 2020 election that made it real.
Where @realdonaldtrump messed up is that by attacking @joebiden, he made the #trumprussia matter existential for all Dems running for office in 2020. Still, but for the whistleblower, he would've gotten away with it.
In addition, AG Barr made a critical error in not taking the referral from the IC IG or CIA GC seriously. He dismissed opening an investigation. By doing that, he put the ball in the House's hands and @RepAdamSchiff ran with it and unraveled the whole scheme in a matter of weeks.
Had Barr opened an investigation and pretended to be objective, he could've run out the clock, shielded Trump and indicted a few fall guys (Rudy). Barr's arrogance resulted in @realdonaldtrump getting #impeached.
So when @NateSilver538 says it's hard to measure the impact of #impeachment on 2020 I think that's mistaken. We know that impeachment blew up Trump's plan to win the 2020 election. It elevated and protected Biden and it weakened Trump.
The primary purpose of #impeachment is not removal from office. If that were the case, the 2/3rds threshold would not be there. It's a tool to manage a political crisis vs a lawless POTUS, put max political pressure on the POTUS, inform the public and frame the next election.
This #impeachmen has achieved all of this and has set the stage for 2020. The election is a referendum on Trump. It's about his corruption and fitness for office and the risk that a 2nd Trump term poses to the Republic. Trump has fundamentally lost the advantages of incumbency.
The only thing Trump has going for him is that fears of economic recession have ebbed and that has improved his rating on that topic. However, growth is projected to decelerate and unemployment is expected to tick up. Consumer spending is expected to slow in '20.
Business investment confidence is expected to keep the economy steady, but politically, an environment of a slowing economy suggests it may not be enough for Trump to ride it to win, particularly as Dems have focused on inequality, not growth or employment, as the issue.
In short, #impeachment has completely changed the framing of the 2020 election and that post-impeachment environment now favors Democrats, particularly center left Dems like @joebiden or @amyklobuchar, not left candidates like @ewarren or @berniesanders.
