Thread by @MesMitch

The future of the US military presence in Iraq is in question amid scenes of confusion in Washington, as the Trump administration scrambled to respond to Iraqi demands for the troops to leave after last week’s assassination in Baghdad of Iran’s top general, Qassem Suleimani.

The US-led coalition taskforce fighting Isis in Iraq delivered a letter to the Iraqi defence ministry on Monday saying preparations would begin right away “to ensure that movement out of Iraq is conducted in a safe and efficient manner”.

But soon afterwards, the defence secretary, told journalists in the Pentagon: “That letter is inconsistent with where we are right now” and insisted that no decision had been taken to evacuate Iraq.

The chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Gen Mark Milley, said the letter had been sent in error.😣👈😬🤔

“That letter is a draft, it was a mistake, it was unsigned, it should not have been released,” Milley said, adding that it was “poorly worded, implies withdrawal, that is not what’s happening”.

The withdrawal of the taskforce from Iraq would dramatically weaken the effort to stop Isis regrouping, marking a strategic victory for Iran and a serious setback for the Trump administration, which urged Baghdad not to expel its counter-terrorist forces.

The evident confusion in Washington added to an impression among US allies and enemies alike that the decision to assassinate Suleimani without a clear plan of what to do next had weakened the US in the region.

US allies have continued to distance themselves from the decision, as millions of Iranians took to the streets to mourn and demand revenge for the assassination of the country’s top general.

Both Israel and Nato stressed they were not involved in the airstrike on Friday. The US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, has already expressed disappointment in the lukewarm reaction of Washington’s European allies.

But the response of Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was particularly striking, as he has been one of Trump’s staunchest supporters on the world stage.

He told a meeting of his security cabinet on Monday: “The assassination of Suleimani isn’t an Israeli event but an American event. We were not involved and should not be dragged into it.”

The Saudi deputy defence minister, Khalid bin Salman, was in Washington on Monday to urge restraint, joining a growing international chorus.

France’s foreign minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, insisted there was still time for diplomacy but warned that without urgent action to defuse rising tensions there was a real risk of a new Middle East war.

The UN secretary general, António Guterres, who spoke to Pompeo on Monday, said that the region’s “cauldron of tensions is leading more and more countries to take unpredicted decisions with unpredictable consequences and a profound risk of miscalculation”.

The Trump administration refused a visa to the Iranian foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, to come to New York to address the UN security council on Thursday, violating the UN headquarters agreement, the Foreign Policy website reported.

A spokesman for the Iranian mission said it had not been informed of any decision, and a UN spokesman declined to comment.

The US letter to the Iraqi military was signed👈😣🤔 by the US commanding general in Iraq, Brig Gen William Seely, and said that US forces “will be repositioning over the coming days and weeks to prepare for onward movement”.

The taskforce would try keep disruption to a minimum and do much of the airlift at night “to alleviate any perception” that the US was bringing more troops into Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone.

In London, the foreign office would not confirm or deny reports that the UK was scaling back staff at its embassies in Iran and Iraq to a minimum level, saying only that both sites were open and

“the safety and security of our staff is of paramount importance and we keep our security posture under regular review”.

Boris Johnson is to chair a meeting of the national security council as Britain continued to urge all sides in the crisis to draw back from all-out conflict. The foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, spoke on Tuesday to Zarif to stress the need for a diplomatic resolution.

Iran has threatened a severe response to the US killing of Suleimani by drone strike in Baghdad last week. Brig Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of Iran’s aerospace 👈😳😣🤔division,

said on Monday that the only appropriate response would be the “the complete destruction of America in the region”.

While beginning to withdraw counter-Isis forces from Iraq, the Pentagon, meanwhile, continued to pour reinforcements into the region in case of a direct conflict with Iran. US defence officials said the roughly 2,500-strong marine force onboard the Bataan amphibious ready group,

equipped with Cobra helicopters and Harrier jets, would be sent to the Middle East from its current position in the Mediterranean.

Three thousand airborne troops are already on the way to Kuwait, and CNN reported that B-52 bombers😡 were being sent to the Indian Ocean base of Diego Garcia, for potential use over the Middle East.

On Monday, Iraq’s caretaker prime minister, Adil Abdul-Mahdi, had summoned the US ambassador😳🤔, Matthew Tueller, and called on the two countries to cooperate in arranging the US withdrawal. However, Abdul-Mahdi did not give a deadline for the US departure.

Trump faced condemnation on Monday for his threat to strike Iranian culture sites among 52 targets that the US would bomb in reprisal for any future Iranian attack. The number,

he explained, was the same as the number of Americans taken hostage when the US embassy in Tehran was seized after the Islamic revolution in 1979.

Trump was also under continued pressure from Democrats on Monday for the lack of transparency over his justification for the assassination of Suleimani, who commanded the elite Quds force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

Trump and Pompeo have claimed the general was plotting imminent attacks against US targets.

Abdul-Mahdi said the Iranian military leader had flown to Iraq to negotiate, and he claimed Trump had asked the Iraqi government to mediate.

Trump did not consult Congress or US allies before ordering the strike in the early hours of the morning in Baghdad. On Saturday, the White House delivered a formal notification to Congress as required by the 1973 War Powers Act, but its contents were classified.

Normally such notifications are public documents with a classified section if required.

The Democratic senators Chuck Schumer and Bob Menendez wrote to Trump on Monday, demanding the war powers notification be declassified.

“We did not see anything here that he deemed required such a classification,” a Senate staffer said. “The War Powers Act provision requiring the 48-hour notification was included partly for transparency purposes with

the American people during these delicate moments. [It’s] pretty self-defeating to hide something meant to be transparent.”

The White House has suggested it will brief selected members of Congress this week, but Kellyanne Conway, a Trump adviser, said the decision on timing was up to the Pentagon.

US allies in Europe and the Middle East have stressed that Suleimani had been a destabilising and destructive presence in the region, but they have largely stopped short of supporting Trump’s decision, calling for restraint on all sides.

The US briefed Nato ministers on Monday on the Suleimani killing. Speaking to journalists later, the Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, distanced the alliance from the operation.

“This is a US decision, it is not a decision taken by either the global coalition nor Nato, but all allies are concerned about Iran’s destabilizing activities in the region, Iran’s support to different terrorist groups,” Stoltenberg said.

He also confirmed the suspension of the Nato training mission in Iraq.

“In everything that we do, the safety of our personnel is paramount. As such, we have temporarily suspended our training on the ground,” the secretary general said.

There is mounting concern that the more cautious stance by the US-led coalition would make it much less effective and allow Isis to regenerate.

“The bottom line is that there won’t be much counter-terrorism going on in Iraq and Syria any time soon,” wrote Luke Hartig, former senior director for counter-terrorism on the national security council, now at the New America foundation.

“Trump’s counter-terrorism legacy in Iraq and Syria may be a series of dead bodies but nothing that addresses the core of the problem and no partners willing to help us root it out.”

How a ‘quantum change’ in missiles has made Iran a far more dangerous foe
Drones and precision guidance have given Tehran new ways to inflict pain in an all-out war, analysts say.

Advocates allege delays at U.S. border for travelers linked to Iran, a claim government denies
Travelers said agents in Washington state asked unusual questions of Iranian Americans and detained families for many hours. U.S. officials say it was because of low staffing.

Iran threatens to hit US bases with medium- and long-range missiles
Tehran has list of 13 retaliation options for Suleimani killing
Military leader vows ‘tough, strong, decisive’ revenge

Iranian military forces have said they are prepared to use medium- to long-range missiles to attack US bases in the Middle East, in revenge for the assassination of the country’s most senior general, Qassem Suleimani.

According to a report by the semi-official Tasnim news agency, Iran has prepared 13 scenarios for retaliation, and the secretary of Iran’s national security council said that even the most limited of the options would be a “historic nightmare” for the US.

Ali Shamkhani told the news agency: “The 27 US bases that are closest to Iran’s border are already on high alert; they know that the response is likely to include medium-range & long-range missiles.”

the escalating military rhetoric may leave Iranian leaders with little option but to attempt a major counterattack, or else face an extraordinary loss of face. The warnings have led US bases in Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan and Saudi Arabia to be placed on maximum alert status.

The leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, Maj Gen Hossein Salami, warned on Tuesday that Iran would “set ablaze the places Americans love”.

Speaking to a crowd of thousands of mourners in Suleimani’s home town, Kerman, Salami said: “We will take revenge – a revenge that will be tough, strong, decisive and finishing and will make them regret.”

The Pentagon has sent six B-52 strategic bombers to the military base on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia, which is beyond the range of Iran’s ballistic missiles, to prepare to hit Tehran if given the order.

56 killed in Kerman
Iran’s Fars News agency now says 56 people killed were killed in the funeral crush in Kerman. It said 35 men and 21 women were killed and 213 people injured.

Iran summons UK ambassador in Tehran
Iran’s foreign ministry has summoned the UK ambassador to Iran, Rob Macaire, following what state media describes as “unacceptable remarks” by Boris Johnson and Ben Wallace.

Iran summons UK ambassador in Tehran
Iran’s foreign ministry has summoned the UK ambassador to Iran, Rob Macaire, following what state media describes as “unacceptable remarks” by Boris Johnson and Ben Wallace.

It comes amid reports that an adviser to Iran’s foreign ministry described the UK as a “partner in crime” to the US over the killing of Suleimani.

Here’s a summary of events so far:

Dozens of people have been killed in a crush in the south-eastern Iranian city of Kerman, where hundreds of thousands of mourners have gathered for the burial of the military commander Qassem Suleimani. State media said

56 people had been killed and 213 injured.
Suleimani’s burial has been postponed due to the size of the crowd. It comes a day after Iranian police said millions gathered to mourn Suleimani in Tehran, in the largest turnout since the 1989 funeral of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

The US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo has again defended the killing of Suleimani but provided no new evidence to support the US claim that the general posed a direct threat to US lives. At a press conference he accused

Iran of propaganda by claiming Suleimani was in Baghdad on a diplomatic mission. Pompeo also said he was “confident” that lawyers were consulted before Donald Trump ordered the strike.

Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, has vowed that Iran will respond “proportionately” to the killing of Suleimani. He described the US-ordered drone strike as an act of state terrorism and claimed Donald Trump had no respect for international law.

The UK has said it wants to keep its troops in Iraq but will pull out if Baghdad demands. The defence secretary, Ben Wallace said: “If they require us to leave, that is their right and we will respect it.”

Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of the supreme national security council, said 13 “revenge scenarios” were being considered by Tehran. Even the weakest option would prove “a historic nightmare for the Americans”, he said.

Javad Zarif has also been told he will not get a US visa to travel to the United Nations later this week. He accused the US of violating the 1947 UN HQ Agreement.

Boris Johnson is due to chair a meeting of the UK national security council to discuss the crisis. The foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, has travelled to Brussels for talks with his European counterparts.

Germany is reducing its troop numbers in Iraq for security reasons after the US killing of Suleimani. It is the first coalition withdrawal since the Iraqi parliament voted on Sunday to call for the withdrawal of US forces from the country.

The S-500 is a new long-range anti-aircraft and anti-ballistic missile system, that was recently developed in Russia. It can be seen as an advanced version of the S-400. Its development of this air defense system commenced in 2002. It was developed by Almaz-Antey company.

This system is also referred as the Prometey (Prometheus) and Triumfator-M. Prototype testing was expected to begin in 2015. Production of the S-500 air defense system reportedly commenced in 2017.

It was planned to be fielded in 2020. However the project was dragging behind schedule. In 2019 it was announced that early testing of this air defense system will start in 2020 and first production system is expected to be delivered in 2025.

Russia plans to field ten battalions of S-500 missiles.

The S-500 is not an upgrade of the S-400, but rather a new design. It uses a lot of new technology and is superior to the S-400. It was designed to intercept ballistic missiles.

It is planned to have a range of 500-600 km and hit targets at altitudes as high as 40 km. Some sources claim that this system is capable of tracking 5-20 ballistic targets and intercepting up to 5-10 ballistic targets simultaneously.

It can defeat ballistic missiles traveling at a speed of 5-7 kilometers per second. It has been reported that this air defense system can also target low orbital satellites. It is planned that the S-500 will shield Moscow and the regions around it.

It will replace the current A-135 anti-ballistic missile system. The S-500 missiles will be used only against the most important targets, such as intercontinental ballistic missiles, AWACS and jamming aircraft.

The S-500 will carry various missiles. These missiles will have various ranges and will be used against different targets. In 2009 a 40N6 long-range air defense missile was ready for testing.

Some sources report, that the S-500 system can detect ballistic missile at a range of 2 000 km and warheads of ballistic missiles at a range of 1 300 km. This system can defeat ballistic missiles before their warheads re-enter atmosphere.

This system has brief reaction time. It has been reported that the S-500 can launch missiles within 10 minutes from traveling. Also it can be considered as a survivable system, as after launching its missiles it can briefly redeploy.

In the 1980s Soviets already used this shoot, scoot and hide philosophy on the S-300V air defense system.

The S-500 missiles are mobile. All equipment will be carried by heavy high mobility trucks. The missiles are likely to be carried by and launched from BAZ-69096 trucks with 10x10 configuration. Two command posts are planned to be based on BAZ-69092-12 6x6 trucks.

Acquisition and battle management radar is planned to be towed by BAZ-6403.01 8x8 tractor truck. Another acquisition radar is planned to be mounted on the BAZ-69096 10x10 chassis. A multi-mode engagement radar is planned to be mounted on BAZ-6909-022 8x8 truck.

The anti-ballistic missile engagement radar is planned to be mounted on BAZ-69096 10x10 chassis. All of these vehicles have good cross-country mobility.

It has been reported that there is also an S-1000 system, that is being developed in Russia.

Possibly it is a modification of the S-500. Though there is little information available on this system.

While speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump suggested the letter from the US military indicating an imminent withdrawal of US troops from Iraq was a “hoax.”🅱️💲

“I don’t know anything about that letter,” Trump said. “I don’t know if that letter is a hoax.”

Secretary of state Mike Pompeo, who was sitting next to the president, then jumped in to say the drafting of the letter had been a mistake.

Defense secretary Mark Esper said yesterday that the letter was inaccurate and repeated today, “The United States is not withdrawing from Iraq.”

Former national security adviser John Bolton was actually present for a number of key events in the Ukraine saga that ultimately led to Trump’s impeachment, despite the president’s claim that Bolton “would know nothing about what we’re talking about.”

Trump: Bolton 'would know nothing about what we’re talking about'
Taking questions from reporters in the Oval Office, Trump brushed off concerns about John Bolton, his former national security adviser, potentially testifying in a Senate impeachment trial.

Bolton said yesterday he would testify in the trial if he were subpoenaed, but it’s unclear whether the Republican-controlled Senate would approve a subpoena.

“That’s going to be up to the lawyers,” Trump said of Bolton’s testimony. “It’ll be up to the Senate, and we’ll see how they feel. He would know nothing about what we’re talking about.”

Trump says Suleimani strike was 'retaliation'
Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office alongside the Greek prime minister, Trump claimed the US strike that killed Iranian general Qassem Suleimani was “retaliation.”

“He was a monster. And he’s no longer a monster. He’s dead,” Trump said, according to the White House pool report.

But senior US officials have previously said the strike was meant to prevent an “imminent” attack on Americans, although they have refused to provide further details on the threat.

While speaking to reporters, Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell also said Trump’s threat to strike Iranian cultural sites was “not appropirate,” marking a rare rebuke from the Republican leader.

Senior officials, including secretary of state Mike Pompeo and defense secretary Mark Esper, have tried to downplay Trump’s threat by emphasizing they would act within the confines of international law, which would obviously rule out striking cultural sites.

Although Trump said he would obey international laws forbidding attacks on cultural sites, the president seemed to complain about the necessity for such restraint.

“They kill our people, they blow up our people and then we have to be very gentle with their cultural institutions,” Trump told reporters gathered in the Oval Office.

“But I’m OK with it. It’s OK with me. I will say this, if Iran does anything that they shouldn’t be doing, they’re going to be suffering the consequences and very strongly.”

Trump initially said the strike that killed Iranian general Qassem Suleimani was “retaliation,” but the president then claimed the strike was carried out due to an imminent threat on Americans, echoing senior officials.

“We saved a lot of lives by terminating his life, a lot of lives were saved,” Trump said. “They were planning something and you’re going to be hearing about it or at least various people in Congress are going to be hearing about it tomorrow.”

Defense officials have so far dodged questions about the specific nature of the threat Suleimani posed.

TRUMP: I have had the best reviews on foreign land. So I go to Poland and make a speech. Enemies of mine in the media, enemies of mine are saying it was the greatest speech ever made on foreign soil by a president. I’m saying, man, they cover [garbled].

You saw the reviews I got on that speech. Poland was beautiful and wonderful, and the reception was incredible.

TRUMP: People don’t realize he loves holding my hand. And that’s good, as far as that goes.

TRUMP: I mean, really. He’s a very good person. And a tough guy, but look, he has to be. I think he is going to be a terrific president of France. But he does love holding my hand.

TRUMP: Well, Napoleon finished a little bit bad. But I asked that. So I asked the president, so what about Napoleon? He said: “No, no, no. What he did was incredible. He designed Paris.” [garbled]

The street grid, the way they work, you know, the spokes. He did so many things even beyond. And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death. How many times has Russia been saved by the weather? [garbled]

Trump said that Rod Rosenstein's hiring of Bob Mueller as the special counsel running the Russia investigation created a conflict of interest.

TRUMP: Rosenstein leaves the office. The next day, he is appointed special counsel. I said, what the hell is this all about? Talk about conflicts? But he was interviewing for the job. There were many other conflicts that I haven’t said, but I will at some point.

So Jeff Sessions, Jeff Sessions gave some bad answers.

TRUMP: Look, there are so many conflicts that everybody has . . . Do you know how many conflicts of interests there are? But then, then Comey also says that he did something in order to get the special prose—

special counsel. He leaked. The reason he leaked. So, he illegally leaked.🍊👈🤣🤔