It is important to note that Iran appears to have launched an “attack” that wasn’t all that different from Trump’s 2017 strike on Syria’s Shayrat air base.
Lots of noise. No significant destruction or intent to cause loss of life.
1/
cnbc.com/2017/04/06/us-…
Lots of noise. No significant destruction or intent to cause loss of life.
1/
cnbc.com/2017/04/06/us-…
Trump’s strike on Shayrat was a show. A performance for the world’s eyes and a bit of saber-rattling to theoretically notify Syria that he was prepared to do more.
Iran is signaling that in the game of chicken, they won’t be the first to blink.
2/
Iran is signaling that in the game of chicken, they won’t be the first to blink.
2/
And that position is a calculated gamble based in no small part on a calculation that Trump not only doesn’t have the support of parties like Russia and Saudi Arabia to escalate a conflict with Iran; he faces their strong opposition.
Russia would not quietly abide escalation.
3/
Russia would not quietly abide escalation.
3/
A bit of a gutsy move on Iran’s part... but unlike Trump’s strike on Soleimani, it isn’t reckless.
It’s playing what they call the “pot odds” of wagering based on the risk-reward.
Iran has more to risk by inaction. The deck favors international pressure pushing for calm.
4/
It’s playing what they call the “pot odds” of wagering based on the risk-reward.
Iran has more to risk by inaction. The deck favors international pressure pushing for calm.
4/
Trump jeopardized our national security out of a compulsive and singular focus on his own public approval.
Iran surveyed the international moment and read that the very same compulsion will force him to stand down when confronted with firm opposition from Russia, et al.
5/
Iran surveyed the international moment and read that the very same compulsion will force him to stand down when confronted with firm opposition from Russia, et al.
5/
Trump, of course, has the capacity to try to “get the last word” by escalating with further strikes on Iranian facilities, oil fields, etc...
But Iran has just sped along a process most likely to lead to a cooling down with Trump emerging as someone who blustered and then bowed.
But Iran has just sped along a process most likely to lead to a cooling down with Trump emerging as someone who blustered and then bowed.
Speaking purely as a matter of geopolitical strategy, Iran’s move has the sensation of being more audacious than Trump’s when, in reality, it’s more calculating and less reckless than Trump’s.
Iran is playing chess. Trump is merely throwing the pieces.
7/
Iran is playing chess. Trump is merely throwing the pieces.
7/
Of course, there are an infinite number of people who know this stuff far better than me.
If they are in disagreement, listen to them over me.
Seems to me Trump waded into a chess match with calculating players and already lost the leverage.
8/8
If they are in disagreement, listen to them over me.
Seems to me Trump waded into a chess match with calculating players and already lost the leverage.
8/8
