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May I interrupt your obsession w/ trade-war/markets/Fed/royals to talk about something key to Asian development? LOW SNOW IN NAGANO!😱😬🏔️ Ave snowfall epic low & for the sake of the apres ski industry in Nozawa that it picks up soon! One can only spend so long in a hot onsen👇🏻!
And we got Thailand drought hurting farmers (doesn't help that Laos got all these dams built to divert flows etc):

👇🏻👇🏻

nst.com.my/world/region/2…
No drought yet for Vietnam but Mekong Delta farmers bracing for drought & salinitation (term refers to salting of the earth due to excessive aquaculture farming). Vietnam is a key exporter of rice & shrimp (coffee too but in Da Lat).

👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

e.vnexpress.net/news/news/meko…
The upstream dams are damning the Mekong Delta, contributing to drought as it diverts flows & making downstream countries, well, suffer:

nst.com.my/world/region/2…
Drought & dam turning Laos' Mekong Delta to turn blue from brown 😬

reliefweb.int/report/lao-peo…
Vietnam & Thailand are key rice exporters so if they got a drought problem then it will impact rice importing countries like the Philippines.

The drought in Thailand seems pretty serious.
Btw, did you know that most things in industrialization depend on sand (beach, buildings, glass, etc).

OK, frenzy building China, Vietnam, Thailand etc = MASSIVE DEMAND FOR SAND & so guess what?

Well grande problemo! Btw, California has the same issue!!

bbc.com/news/business-…
We are RUNNING OUT OF SAND!!! We use so much sand. Many, can't believe sand & snow are becoming scarce (love mountains & the beach)

👇🏻

businessinsider.com/world-running-…
Sorry, sorry, how can I forget about India (remember the CPI going >7% on vegies or lack there of?) Well, well, well, DROUGHT HITS MANY INDIAN STATES!!!

Now we got water-related crimes doubling! 😱😬👇🏻

newindianexpress.com/thesundaystand…
GOT RICE???? Got sugar? Got wheat? Got palm oil???

FOOD INFLATION COMING TO YOU 😱🌞🍙🍚🍛🌴(Already here in China, India, and Vietnam)!
GOT RICE??? 🍛🍚🍙

Thailand, #2 exporter of rice (India #1), expects volume to fall massively (India got a drought problem too). So Vietnamese farmers likely to profit from higher prices BUT WHAT IF DROUGHT COMES TO VIETNAM??

reuters.com/article/thaila…
Got RICE? The Philippines is bracing for higher rice import (paging all the net importers of food in Asia, which is plenty!!!)

opinion.inquirer.net/126626/ph-shou…
So higher rice price = good for Indian rice farmers as they are numero uno exporter of rice.

Importers of rice 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
Apparently Nigeria rice import growth is MASSIVE!!

👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻🍛🍚🍙🇳🇬

Got rice?

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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More from @Trinhnomics see all

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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
Ready? Thread on US-China value chain relationship. First, let's talk about gross trade from the US perspective & then we go into the transformation of that relationship & the status of tariffs & stage of production

Gross data: The US is the #1 importer in the world of 2.6trn 👇🏻
There are several ways to decompose gross trade (imports & exports) but to understand value chain, we need to look at it from stage of production. IMPORTS equal amt of intermediates (goods used for inputs) & consumer goods

US EXPORTS mostly INTERMEDIATES.
Trade deficit = EX < IM
Before we go on, the difference between exports & imports of the US = CA deficit, which means it imports capital (most EM Asia recycle CA surplus into UST & equities).

Or, the US is the FINAL DESTINATION OF MOST VALUE CHAIN. As in its imports are mostly for DOMESTIC USE so key!
Read 17 tweets
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
Not just China, KOSPI & Nikkei & other Asian rally also fading today as people are selling the facts after buying the rumours.

But data totally upbeat in December for China trade!!!
Details on US-China trade-deal purchase agreement; used 2017 export figure to China (US perspective) & the total & what is in the USD200bn purchase agreement.

Question: Is the 35+40 services in addition to existing ~50bn of services b/c the US already exports above commitment??
Phase-1 Deal:

25% tariff on USD250bn goods of mostly intermediates in place (note that 250 is just based on those items value in 2018 & is a 25% tax on items on not amount); 120bn of goods (consumer & intermediates) have 7.5% tariffs.

China agreed to purchase USD200bn goods👇🏻
Read 10 tweets
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
China exports in USD was +7.6%YoY & imports was 16.3% (base effect very favorable - will talk about details detail on what drove the upward movement).

Notice that Chinese equity prices went DOWN after the massive upside surprise trade figures.
After rallying on trade-deal rumours, here are the facts:

* USD/CNY since trade-war peak (-4.2%) to 6.87, not good for China as needs to export deflationary impulses
* Commitment by China to purchase USD200bn of goods (75bn for manu + 50energy + 40agri + 35 to 40bn of services)
Basically FX (removal of manipulation in exchange for a weaker USD) +commitment of purchases (a lot more than what China had imported from the US prior to trade-war so a lot of creative accounting here or taking from elsewhere) = seen as negative for China exporting PPI deflation
Read 3 tweets

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Steven Lundgren
@love4thegameAK
Earlier ..
POTUS Signs the Phase One Trade Agreement! pscp.tv/w/cO86WzFxTFFH…
ORTIZ: "Thanks to Trump’s efforts, American manufacturers, farmers, and small businesses enjoy a more level playing field with their foreign competitors. And when the game isn’t rigged, no nation can match American business ingenuity and work ethic." trib.al/4S1QK0d
“Our negotiations were tough, honest, open, and respectful, leading us to this really incredible breakthrough.”

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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 *U.S. WAITING TO HEAR FROM #CHINA ON TRADE DEAL, KUDLOW SAYS - BBG
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*TRUMP, LIGHTHIZER ARE VERY CLOSE, KUDLOW TELLS CNBC
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇨🇦 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇮🇷 #Canada arrests #Huawei’s global chief financial officer in Vancouver – The Globe and Mail
theglobeandmail.com/canada/article…
A gauge of #technology shares on the MSCI #Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 3 percent before paring some losses - Bloomberg
🇺🇸 #SPX ⬇ as much as 1.9% from Tuesday’s close, before paring some losses. Selling pressure early in the session was so intense that it forced CME Group to intermittently pause trading, according to a spokesperson for the exchange - Bloomberg
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Joseph Stalin
@StalinIsBack
1/8 My favorite #quote by #JosephStalin, which explains the scientific, #DialecticalMaterialist explanation of true freedom in material reality, not just as an abstract ideal. #StalinIsBack #StalinLives #JVStalin #Stalin #StalinQuote #StalinQuotes #Truth #MELS #MarxismLeninism
2/8 Having an #objective, #rational, #ScientificSocialist, #Dialectical, & #Materialist viewpoint allows us to accurately see & evaluate & analyze #Truth & #Reality as they truly materially exist in this universe.
3/8 An idealistic, dogmatic viewpoint, which capitalists have, however, makes one irrational enough to 'see' freedom where freedom stays trapped on a piece of paper while people are oppressed in their actual lived lives.
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇨🇳 #CHINA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E (slowest growth since Q1 2009)
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🇫🇷 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 French tire maker Michelin warned of declining sales in Europe and #China in the second half of the year, dragging down shares of its competitors in the U.S. and Europe - Bloomberg
*Statement: bit.ly/2EujhqH
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bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
- Best demographics
- Largest military
- Largest economy
- Most used currency
- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
- Rule of law
- Best geography
- Can be self sufficient if required
- Not trade dependent
#USA
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
- China: 15.2% (strategic competitor)
- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
- Japan: 5.1%
- Germany: 4.4%

The next 10 years could result in the below:
- Mexico (25%)
- Canada (20%
- Japan (7%)
- South Korea (5%)
- Great Britain (4%)
#USA
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz…
cebglobal.com/talentdaily/au…
irishtimes.com/business/econo…
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