Thread by @iamSANhedrin

My current #Working #Research #Topic: "A Review of the #CommonMonetaryArea of #SouthernAfrica: Are Client Countries Better-off De-Linking from the #Anchor #Economy?". I'm using #OptimumCurrencyArea #OCA #Theory to analyse the #CMA arrangement. Draft will be ready January end..!

The #CommonMonetaryArea of #SouthernAfrica or #CMA could seem to some (mostly the technically inclined) to be a no-brainer & a clear natural #OptimumCurrencyArea given the historical links between the #anchor #SouthAfrica & the #clients (#Lesotho #Eswatini & #Namibia)...

Be that as it may, 2020 marks 46 years since the #RandMonetaryArea - #RMA agreement and 34 years since the RMA was revised to establish the #CommonMonetaryArea - #CMA between #SouthAfrica, #Lesotho, Swaziland (now, #Eswatini) and #Namibia...

An #Analyst's or #Researcher's curiosity in such a case would lead to asking the question: "Has the #CMA arrangement benefited its client countries? To answer the question, one would first have to appreciate the purported benefits of a #single #currency arrangement

Such a question is not only pertinent in the #CMA case. It is also important given recent developments on the #African #Continent (i.e. the launch of the African #FreeTradeArea - #AfFta & the abandonment of the #CFA #Franc for #Eco by the #WAEMU)

My #research will leverage #OCA #Theory to determine the following: 1. The degree of trade between #CMA client countries & the anchor economy, 2. The extent of price co-movement between the same and last 3. The extent of output co-movement between the same...

In the main, #apriori #expectations are that we will obtain evidence of 1. high #trade levels between the client countries & the anchor economy, 2. low variation in #prices between client countries & anchor and last 3. low variation in #output between client countries & anchor...

From there, the research will endeavour to spell out the costs & benefits of the #CMA arrangement to client countries. Again, #apriori #expectations in this respect are for the #benefits to outweigh the #costs. In such a case, the policy question will look at #vulnerabilities...

In closing: I am 60% done with the draft #research paper. I am sure it will spark some interesting reflections when it is all wrapped up. I will be sure to keep you in the know..!

@threadreaderapp kindly unroll...