I wonder how many who oppose Trump's removal do so in part b/c Trump is understood to be the kind of person who would do such things to win. Unlike with Watergate, the facts of this scandal come as no shock. If you supported Trump before, you're probably already okay with this.
To be clear, this is a genuine question -- the answer may be "very few" or "none." Perhaps Trump is understood as a deeply moral and ethical person to most/all of his fans, and it's just inconceivable that he would do what the witnesses and the House Managers allege. /2
But my sense is that one explanation for historical levels for/against support for impeachment for various Presidents is based on expectations: If the evidence suggests that the President acts pretty much like his supporters expected, they don't drop their support. /3
Take Bill Clinton. When he lied about his affair, it wasn't exactly a surprise, even to his fans. If you supported Clinton before impeachment, you probably supported him after. /4
Or take Nixon. As I understand the history, Nixon lost the support of his party only when the "smoking gun" tape was made public. Trump announced his resignation 3 days after the tape came out. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_Whi… . /5
The same could be true with Trump. Whether you see Trump as profoundly unethical (as his opponents do), or a scrappy fighter able to meet the dirty Democrats at their own game (as some of his fans say), the accusations, if true, don't seem particularly out of character. /6
Consider this poll result from November. Check out the excerpt below: When asked what they thought about a Prez "pressuring another country to investigate a political rival," only 22% of self-Id'd GOPs, likely his supporters, thought it was impeachable.
vox.com/policy-and-pol…
vox.com/policy-and-pol…
Indeed, a majority of Republicans thought that pressuring foreign countries to investigate political rivals was pretty much A-OK:
I would guess that some of that reflects expectations about Trump: If you support him, and it's the kind of thing that you would expect Trump to do, you're probably okay with him doing it.
Granted, the causation may go the other way. Maybe you think most politicians are corrupt and the GOP establishment played too nicely. Trump is great, from that perspective, because finally there's a Republican who plays dirty, too.
But if so, it's the same basic point as I started with. Even if the Dems are right about what he did, they're not telling you something new about Trump. If you went in as a fan, there's nothing unexpected to change your mind. Anyway, just a theory, curious if people agree. /end
