Thread by @diplocharlie

[Thread] #Europe just announced it would trigger the Dispute resolution mechanism #DRM of the #JCPOA. This is a big move but my guess is many people in #DC will wrongly assume this is an alignment to tougher US position on #Iran. /1 gov.uk/government/new…

On the contrary, the #EU maintains its balanced position btw #US and #Iran in order to keep door open for real negotiations on nuke and beyond. Let’s see why: /2

Last episode : despite the killing of Soleimani, #Iran stayed in the #JCPoA but continued its counter pressure policy on Jan. 5th through its “5th step” going against the nuke deal. The #US asked again #Europe to leave the #JCPoA. /3
cnn.com/2020/01/04/mid…

E3 response came in 2 parts I/ issuing a statement recalling their goal of preventing Iran from acquiring nuke weapons but reaffirming their commitment to the #JCPoA, while blaming Iran for violations of the deal and for regional instability. Details👇

https://twitter.com/diplocharlie/status/1216781415523782657?s=21

/4

II/ triggering the #DRM. I spare you the specifics but it means #Iran #France #Germany #UK #China #Russia #EU have about a month (or more if consensus on extension) to find what to do about Iranian violations. Details here from @BelferCenter

Let’s be clear: triggering the #DRM is a significant move the #E3 has been careful to take. This shows the #JCPoA has been put in a dramatic situation because of #US and Iranian pressure/counter pressure policies. /6

Main reasons #E3 did this: i/ violations from #Iran had to provoke a reaction to preserve c/ proliferation credibility ii/ need to pressure #Iran to return to compliance iii/ get everybody around the table to prepare real negotiation. /7

The spirit of triggering the #DRM now is indeed to force a nego on the current situation and try to salvage what remains of the #JCPoA by putting #Iran and indirectly the #US around a table. The alternative is another escalation like the one leading to the downing of #PS752. /8

While some in #DC keep hoping for regime change in #Iran without saying it, it should be possible to articulate two different ideas : One can support the aspirations of Iranian demonstrators AND prepare serious negotiations at the same time. /9

Exploring new agreement w/ Tehran isn’t contradictory with supporting Iranians calling for transparency, democracy and better governance in #Iran. If conditions are robust and clear, opening the negotiation option to Tehran might even prevent further regime militarisation. /10

And for all the talks about “European weakness”, or EU allegedly “bending over” to Washington or Tehran (depending which side is talking), the #JCPoA remains a strong counter example: #EU stays united and consistent. /11

The #EU warned since 2017 that #US withdrawal from #JCPoA would weaken c/prolif, strengthen #IRGC and fuel reg instability. Here we are today. It’s abt time to engage in the negotiation #Europe is calling for. #DRM is no magical solution but there is no good options left [end]