A new preprint from Isaac and others estimates how many people have likely been undetected in Iran given exported cases in Canada, Lebanon and UAE. Their best guess: 18,300 #covid19 cases!
„Given the low volumes of air travel to countries with identified cases of COVID-19 with origin in Iran (such as Canada), it is likely that Iran is currently experiencing a COVID-19 epidemic of significant size for such exportations to be occurring“
„This is concerning, both for public health in Iran itself, and because of the high likelihood for outward dissemination of the epidemic to neighbouring countries with lower capacity to respond to infectious diseases epidemics.“
What’s the best case?! „Even if it were assumed that all cases were identified in all countries with certainty, the "best case" outbreak size was substantial (1820, 95% CI: 380-5320 cases), and far higher than reported case counts.“
Preprint is here: medrxiv.org/content/10.110… All the usual caveats apply. This has not been peer-reviewed.
