BREAKING! OH believes they have already 100K Coronavirus cases but they don't have 1,000 deaths from it; which would be a 1% death rate. They don't even have 100 deaths which would be a 0.10% death rate.
HUGE NEWS!
HUGE NEWS!
2/3 Some people claim that Corona deaths start 7-10 days into the virus. If OH believes it has now 100,000 cases it sure had 20K cases 10 days ago. Do they have 200 deaths? That would be one percent. Do they have 20 deaths? How about 20 severely ill patients about to die?
3/3 am trying to give context and full numbers. I am not sure why so many people either want to shut it out or want to see the worst in all numbers. Italy shows that a small uptick in hospital use is bad news. It doesn't show that everyone is getting AND also dying.
Let's say OH got 100K cases in a week (to explain why they don't have yet deaths that represent even a 0.1% rate), then OH will have 500K-1mm cases in a month. At 1%, that would be 5K - 10K deaths. Context? Corona is raging for months globally and we are not yet at 5K deaths. 
OH's Health Director TODAY: "We know now... that at the very least 1% of our population is carrying this virus in Ohio today. We have 11.7 mm people. So the math is over 100K."
This would be 100 deaths with a flu death rate of 0.10%.
OH does't even have yet 100 suspected cases:
This would be 100 deaths with a flu death rate of 0.10%.
OH does't even have yet 100 suspected cases:
Either 1% of Ohio (100K) has Corona but the death rate of Corona is way lower than the 2-3 % that we are told. Or Corona does have a high death rate but OH doesn't have close to 100K. I mean, at 10K cases they would have 200-300 deaths or at a minimum over 1K severely ill cases.
"BUT YOSSI LOOK AT ITALY." I am looking. Their system snapped when it had only 1,500 severe cases (including deaths). This tells us that our hospitals are stretched very thin; it doesn't tell us that Corona spreads many times quicker than flu and also 10X more deadly.
1/4 OHIO SUMMARY: State says 1% of its people has Coronavirus which makes it 100K+ people. If Corona is as contagious as panicked, this is a low estimate and if the severity rate (critically ill + deaths) is as high as panicked, OH should have now more than 5K hospitalizations.
2/4 The only way to explain how OH has 100K cases (mass contagion) but not yet 5K hospitalizations is if OH went from 0 to 100K cases in a week and cases are not yet hospital level. Ok. This however means their 5K hospital cases will happen over the next week and two. Well,
3/4 at that point their case load will be in the millions because if OH went from 0 to 100K cases in a week, then all their 11 million residents will be infected after week 2-3. At that point, 5K hospitalizations (from week one) would be a fraction of all Corona cases!
4/4 Obviously, no one sane thinks that all of OH will get Corona which means they did not go from 0 to 100K cases in a week. Which means their 100K cases is many weeks in the making. Ok so where are the 5K hospitalizations from it? Or even 1K for the first 20K cases?
