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⚠️"Worst-case" #coronavirus scenario in the US from @CDCgov:

▶️160 million–214 million infected
▶️Outbreak lasts months–1 year, waves of infections staggered across time in different communities
▶️200,000–1.7 million deaths

#CoronavirusPandemic #COVID19
nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/…
Based on CDC's #coronavirus estimates, 2.4 million–21 million may require hospitalization, potentially overwhelming hospitals that only have ~925,000 hospital beds with <10% ICU beds.

This is why we must act NOW to #FlattenTheCurve.

#CoronavirusPandemic
We can decrease the impact of the #CoronavirusPandemic by aggressively testing for #COVID19 (except Trump *bungled* this), tracing contacts, and reducing human interactions by stopping large gatherings, working from home and curbing travel.

But we must act NOW.

#coronavirus
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#coronavirus #CoronavirusPandemic #COVID19 #FlattenTheCurve

More from @DrDenaGrayson see all

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Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
⚠️@BilldeBlasio's decision to keep #NYC schools open is "incredibly foolish. The #coronavirus will spread like wildfire among the children. They get infected, and they can spread that virus easily to older people who are at a MUCH higher risk." ~me

nytimes.com/aponline/2020/…
It's extremely important that these kids have food security, and their working parents will need financial and other support, once the schools close. But keeping schools open in the face of this deadly #pandemic is truly foolish.

#coronavirus #COVID19
Kids from families without homes get assistance (in addition to meals) from schools and will need substantial support. I urge NYC to do the right thing, close the schools, and support these kids and their families.
Read 3 tweets
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Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
🚨Time to declare the #Seattle area a #coronavirus hot zone. Shut down all public areas, close businesses, and have people stay home. Those who are sick must be tested for #COVID19 and, if positive, quarantined AWAY from those who are NOT sick.

Act NOW, @GovInslee.
Time is of the essence. EVERY day counts. The longer we wait, the more who will become infected exponentially.

#Italy waited too long, and if Seattle waits, things could get WORSE than Italy.

NO ONE wants quarantines, but INACTION = more people die.

bostonglobe.com/2020/03/13/opi…
Specialized quarantine areas MUST be designated NOW. Most of the transmission in #China was via *close* contacts. If infected people are isolated at home, they can infect their families/housemates.

This video via @MaddowBlog is highly informative.👇🏼

Read 4 tweets
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Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
⚠️WARNING: The explosion of #coronavirus cases in northern #Italy has nearly collapsed its healthcare system, warning the rest of the world against waiting too long to control the #CoronavirusPandemic.

Regions in the US need to SHUT DOWN EVERYTHING NOW.
washingtonpost.com/world/europe/i…
This region accounts for ~1/6 of #Italy’s population but ~60% of its #coronavirus cases and 75% of its #COVID19 deaths. In Lombardy, the fatality rate is >2x higher (8.5%) compared with 4% elsewhere in Italy, because the hospitals are overwhelmed, like #Wuhan’s were.
The problem is snowballing with nearly half of the region’s 617 #coronavirus deaths in the past 2 days.

The region has 4,200 #COVID19 patients needing hospitalization, projected to grow nearly 5x, to 20,000, with 3,000 - 4,000 of them requiring ICU care.

The US must act NOW.
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Dr Nafeez Ahmed
@NafeezAhmed
THREAD: I believe Boris Johnson's strategy on #COVID_19uk is fundamentally flawed & at odds with available scientific data. I'm NOT an epidemiologist, but I am a complex systems analyst specialising in societal collapse risks. This is why I'm concerned /1 medium.com/insurge-intell…
People should NOT panic, but they should take as much precautionary mutual-collective action as possible to avert a potential worst-case scenario. The govt's failure to facilitate this will be disastrous - in my opinion. This is why I hold that opinion /2 medium.com/insurge-intell…
The govt claims that early large-scale action is unnecessary and could be counterproductive. Yet numerous epidemiological studies show that early social distancing intervention is the best way to reduce and limit deaths and the epidemic size /3 medium.com/insurge-intell…
Read 17 tweets
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Dr. Lucky Tran 🐨
@luckytran
#Coronavirus lessons from the past: In the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak, St. Louis cancelled its public events while Philadelphia proceeded with a 200,000 person parade.

This was the result:
Within 72 hours every bed in the city’s 31 hospitals was filled. This & other public health fumbles by city authorities lead to a much higher death rate than those cities which implemented multiple interventions were implemented at an early phase

Source: pnas.org/content/104/18…
Right now many of the largest cities in the US (Philadelphia, Chicago, Boston, and New York City) are preparing to hold parades for #StPatricksDay.

City leadership should listen to public health experts and cancel these events.

#coronavirus #COVID19

vice.com/en_us/article/…
Read 5 tweets
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Jacob Canfield
@JacobCanfield
I decided to read almost every paper that exists on #CoronaVirus today.

My background is Biology and Neurology and I'm obsessed with catching parabolic trends early, data and medical research.

Here is a thread with the latest research

Feel free to retweet or cite with credits
For reference, about a month ago, I was one of the early people warning of Corona Virus and urging my followers to prepare and buying masks and predicting fear and mass hysteria.

Links to tweets:


Where did it come from?

Based on the genetic sequencing, it either came from bats or Pangolins originally.

The most probable suspect is a bat, but it could have been a bat to another animal similar to how SARS spread before.

Source:
nature.com/articles/s4158…
Read 29 tweets
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The Independent
@Independent
#Coronavirus latest:

- UK reveals plan to tackle outbreak
- Expert says 10,000s could die
- WHO warns ‘we are in uncharted territory’

Follow our live updates:

independent.co.uk/news/health/co…
#Coronavirus latest:

- Pope tests negative for virus
- People should 'go about normal lives', says UK Health Sec

independent.co.uk/news/health/co…
#Coronavirus latest:

- Germany reports 31 new cases of virus
- The number of has risen to 188, up from 157 yesterday afternoon

independent.co.uk/news/health/co…
Read 31 tweets
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Alfonso Araujo
@Alf_ArGzz
#coronavirus

Hoy observamos un aumento de 1343 casos, bajando a 2.4% en la variación día con día, y 142 decesos. Las cifras oficiales son:

56,868 casos confirmados
8969 en sospecha
11,053 graves
8184 altas
1524 decesos

Sitio oficial:
news.qq.com//zt2020/page/f…
TENDENCIAS

En los últimos 2 días:

La reducción de casos en sospecha (-10%) indica que el cambio en el método de diagnóstico ha sido efectivo.

La masa total de pacientes en observación (Confirmados más Sospechosos) se mantiene constante desde el 8 de febrero (63-66 mil; ...
variaciones de 4.7%), de modo que:

...el aumento en los casos graves (+37%) y altas (+32%) con menor cantidad de decesos (+11%) hace suponer que una gran cantidad de pacientes están llegando al mismo tiempo al final del ciclo de convalecencia, con pronósticos cada vez mejores.
Read 12 tweets
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EVent Horizon
@evdefender
Think someone is lying to you?

First check to see if they bothered to add any variability whatsoever in the model they are using to supposedly report actual numbers from a complex system.

#coronavirus
The mortality rate they want you to report is the - 0 day rate: Today's Confirmed Death total minus Today's Confirmed Case total.

This has not varied outside of 1/10th of 1% in the last 5 prints.

#coronavirus
But even a minor adjustment of a few days in the mortality rate paints an entirely different picture

#coronavirus

Read 336 tweets

Trending hashtags

#COVI19 #France #COVID19 #China #cured #Coronavirus #COVIDー19 #WHO #SouthAfrica #2019nCoV #Japan #coronavirus #WuhanVirus #coronavirusnews #CoronaPandemic #SouthAsia #CoronavirusFrance #coronarovirus #Norway #冠状病毒 #Delta #Wuhan #ChinaVirus #Finland #Iran

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