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NEW: here’s today’s update on the coronavirus case trajectory tracker

• Most European countries still on ~33% increase line
• US & Spain above, UK & Belgium below
• Korea seems to have cases back under control

Keep up-to-date with live version here: ft.com/content/a26fbf…
And here’s my explainer on log scales:
We’ve now pushed this graphic to the top of our live tracker page, and will be adding more graphics to the page next week to highlight the most important — and useful — metrics to follow ft.com/content/a26fbf…
Finally, we’re now no longer relying solely on the Johns Hopkins data, but are supplementing this with reporting from out own @FT correspondents around the world.
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John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
I’m no epidemiologist, but I am a #dataviz specialist, so here are some thoughts on coronavirus and log scales:

1) In the initial outbreak phase, a virus like this spreads exponentially not arithmetically, i.e a log scale is the natural way to track the spread
2) If we show case numbers on a linear scale, it would look like UK, US etc have little to worry about: they’re down here and Italy is way up there! You’d also be asking readers to calculate an exponential curve in their head to see if two countries are on the same trajectory ???
3) Log scales handle all of this:

First, vertical distance represents multiplicative difference. The space between countries with 100 and 1,000 cases is the same as that between countries with 1,000 and 10k, because it takes the same time to go between those two milestones.
Read 6 tweets
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John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW on coronavirus: many western countries may soon face Italy’s situation

Case numbers since outbreaks began in several countries have tracked a ~33% daily rise. This is as true for UK, France, Germany as Italy; the latter is simply further down the path ft.com/content/a26fbf…
The exceptions are Asian city-states Hong Kong & Singapore, where spread has been relatively well contained through rapid & strict measures.

In Singapore, quarantined people’s locations are tracked, and breach of quarantine can mean a $10k fine or prison
ft.com/content/dd4161…
Meanwhile the jury is still out on Japan: is the flatter curve the positive result of measures like early school closures, or a misleading trend due to Japan’s very low testing rates? ft.com/content/dd4161…
Read 3 tweets
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John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW with @ChrisGiles_:
ft.com/content/c9db4c…

The UK has a regional inequality problem, but it's much more nuanced than the typical hot take.

You've probably seen a version of this chart before, showing the UK as a 😱 outlier for regional inequality.

Look how rich London is!
But.

OECD's TL3 regions compare "Camden & City of London" (population 263k) to sprawling San Francisco Bay Area (pop 9.7m) and the entire New York - Newark region (pop 23.7m).

You can't compare richest hub of one city with huge regions containing cities, suburbs & rural areas.
Essentially, UK is divided into smaller units than its peer countries, meaning more concentrated rich pockets, so it *looks* more geographically unequal than it is.

Luckily, the OECD can help solve its own problem. Here's the same chart, but using its Functional Urban Areas™️
Read 14 tweets

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