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NEW chart on coronavirus: we're now tracking death toll trajectories as well as cases

• Deaths in Italy & Spain now growing much faster than they did in China at same stage
• More deaths in Italy in last 24h than on any day in Wuhan

Live version here: ft.com/content/a26fbf…
Here are the latest case trajectories:

Deaths and cases now all in our tracker page, plus other indicators: ft.com/content/a26fbf…
Here's my explainer on why we're using log scales:
And why we're showing absolute numbers rather than population-adjusted rates:
It's getting difficult to keep track of replies on here, so while I'll still try to respond to comments, questions and suggestions in replies, please DM or email john.burn-murdoch@ft.com if you have important feedback, comments, requests etc
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John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW: here’s today’s update on the coronavirus case trajectory tracker

• Most European countries still on ~33% increase line
• US & Spain above, UK & Belgium below
• Korea seems to have cases back under control

Keep up-to-date with live version here: ft.com/content/a26fbf…
And here’s my explainer on log scales:
We’ve now pushed this graphic to the top of our live tracker page, and will be adding more graphics to the page next week to highlight the most important — and useful — metrics to follow ft.com/content/a26fbf…
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John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
I’m no epidemiologist, but I am a #dataviz specialist, so here are some thoughts on coronavirus and log scales:

1) In the initial outbreak phase, a virus like this spreads exponentially not arithmetically, i.e a log scale is the natural way to track the spread
2) If we show case numbers on a linear scale, it would look like UK, US etc have little to worry about: they’re down here and Italy is way up there! You’d also be asking readers to calculate an exponential curve in their head to see if two countries are on the same trajectory ???
3) Log scales handle all of this:

First, vertical distance represents multiplicative difference. The space between countries with 100 and 1,000 cases is the same as that between countries with 1,000 and 10k, because it takes the same time to go between those two milestones.
Read 6 tweets
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John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW on coronavirus: many western countries may soon face Italy’s situation

Case numbers since outbreaks began in several countries have tracked a ~33% daily rise. This is as true for UK, France, Germany as Italy; the latter is simply further down the path ft.com/content/a26fbf…
The exceptions are Asian city-states Hong Kong & Singapore, where spread has been relatively well contained through rapid & strict measures.

In Singapore, quarantined people’s locations are tracked, and breach of quarantine can mean a $10k fine or prison
ft.com/content/dd4161…
Meanwhile the jury is still out on Japan: is the flatter curve the positive result of measures like early school closures, or a misleading trend due to Japan’s very low testing rates? ft.com/content/dd4161…
Read 3 tweets

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Bansi Sharma
@bansisharma
My Tentative Evidence #coronavirus will Abate by Summer

📌Wuhan is located at a latitude of 31° N.

📌Every country located below 25° N is showing hardly any deaths from coronavirus. These regions include Latin America, India, a lot of Middle East, Africa, etc.

Difference: Temp
Infections can happen anywhere in the world due to movement of people. Therefore, I focused primarily on number of reported deaths, i.e. infections that develop into critical conditions causing death. This could very well be a false flag due to testing and reporting deficiencies.
My hunch above is finding some tentative support in more rigorous analyses.

The following abstract is from a paper from Institute of Human Virology at the University of Maryland School of Medicine.
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Starting soon.
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Memelord
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OH CRAP I DID IT AGAIN. Time for a new #Coronavirus thread
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QuickTake by Bloomberg
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Health officials dressed in hazmat suits check passengers in Milan who arrived on a flight from Hong Kong for the deadly #coronavirus, which originated in #Wuhan.

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🇨🇳 #CHINA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E (slowest growth since Q1 2009)
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Nando Sigona
@nandosigona
Sea arrivals in #Spain are increasing.
But the closure of a #migration route doesn't mean that automatically migrants just move to a different one. There is little evidence of a 'route replacement' trend.
#migrationEU
This is an important reminder that 'immigration policies' can affect migration flows but are hardly the only factor at play. The drivers of #migration are multiple and can't be reduce to the political will 'at destination'.
There is an overall and significant decrease in sea arrivals, which should be a warning for everyone still using the word 'migration crisis', but this is not the case, see newint.org/features/web-e… #Salvini #Italy
Read 9 tweets

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