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This graph is CHILLING. Let me explain:

It shows the number of #COVID cases by age in S. Korea (red) vis Italy (green). And there are WAY more young cases in S. Korea.

Why? NOT because younger ppl get it in S. Korea. But because S. Korea TESTS young ppl.

THREAD

1/
In Italy (like the US), they're only testing ppl w/ symptoms. And the ppl who show symptoms w/ #COVID19 are older and sicker. That's why their numbers are skewed by age.

But in S. Korea, they're testing everyone, meaning their catching the young, asymptomatic cases, too.

2/
So remember the pics of all those kids partying this weekend? Well, they think they're not going to get the #Coronavirus. That's not true, they're just not going to get SYMPTOMS of #Covid_19. But this graph shows that they might still get it--and unknowingly pass it on.

3/
Which is why everyone needs to #StayTheFHome! Don't be selfish. Your life may not depend on it--but your favorite grandparent, aunt, or neighbor's may.

4/4
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#COVID #COVID19 #Coronavirus #Covid_19 #StayTheFHome

More from @AbdulElSayed see all

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Abdul El-Sayed
@AbdulElSayed
I keep hearing #herdimmunity is going to solve #COVID. Here's why IT WON'T WORK:

First, a primer on what "herd immunity" is:

Getting an infectious illness requires contacting people who are infected. If ppl are immune, they can't carry the virus.

SO...

THREAD

1/
The more people who are immune in a "herd", the less likely anyone in the herd is to contact anyone who is infected--the less the disease spreads.

You're protected by the immunity of ppl around you.

Herd immunity is a key reason why vaccines are so powerful.

2/
But there is no #COVIDー19 vaccine. And the only way to obtain herd immunity is for ppl to GET THE DISEASE.

Ppl telling us that the solution is "herd immunity" are literally saying that we should encourage more people to get sick.

That's CRAZYTOWN for three reasons:

3/
Read 6 tweets
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Abdul El-Sayed
@AbdulElSayed
Young people! I’m hearing one of three things re: #COVID19:

1) “I’m not in the high risk zone, so I’m good, nothing changes.”

2) “I have an underlying condition so I’m so screwed.”

3) “I am healthy but I am still SUPER anxious about all this.”

THREAD

1/
If you’re in group 1:

Remember, the greatest risk to you may not be to YOUR body—but it may be THROUGH YOUR body to someone else’s—that would be devastating.

We practice social distancing, great hand hygiene, & vigilance not just to protect ourselves, but folks we love.

2/
If you’re in group 2:

First, you’re not screwed! We’re doing all this to make sure of it.

What CAN you do? The same thing as everyone else (social distancing, great hand hygiene) + stock up on supplies. Don’t buy a ton of TP, do get 2 months of your meds/canned foods.

3/
Read 4 tweets
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Abdul El-Sayed
@AbdulElSayed
A challenge w/ #COVID is that panic, itself, is contagious—an “infodemic.”

Without strong, evidence-driven leadership, local leaders default to the most stringent policies.

We’re seeing this at all levels—from banning travel from Europe to shutting down schools.

Thread:

1/
For example, School closures MAY be right, but we don’t have any evidence; & they could do harm:

1) healthcare workers who are needed on the front lines have to scramble for care

2) it forces seniors—at most risk—to care for kids.

3) tons of kids rely on school lunches.

2/
AND we know that kids actually have low risk of serious #COVID. Only 2.4% of all cases in one study.

Rather than make policy specific to #COVID, ppl are borrowing policy from other infectious epidemics, like flu, which is super deadly for kids.

3/
 washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03…
Read 7 tweets

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CLLynch
@lynchauthor
This is the kind of attitude that gets people killed.

Here is how I explained it to my nine year old:

Ebola and other plagues are usually easy to catch and stop. They are deadly, but that very deadliness makes them stand out. We spot them. We stop them.

#COVID is different.
#Covid ‘s mildness is the most dangerous aspect of it.

Many people who catch it don’t even experience symptoms.

Children, who cough on everything and never wash their hands CARRY IT WITHOUT SYMPTOMS.

When symptoms do show, they come two weeks later. Two WEEKS.
That means that for every sick person we see and test and hospitalize, there are probably a hundred people walking around feeling just fine, infecting other people who feel just fine, who infect OTHER people who feel JUST FINE.

Then two weeks later... KABOOM
Read 24 tweets
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Laurel Chor
@laurelchor
As a Hong Konger, I continue to be baffled by the public response in Europe. Though most are concerned, many are still acting like it's nbd. HK was in the news because of #COVIDー19 a month ago. There are travel advisories against HK. Peopled abroad asked me about it. 1/
There are STILL only ~130 cases in Hong Kong. There are now 798 cases in the UK & ppl are still out & about as if nothing is wrong. When I was in Milan (at a time when there were 3,000 cases), I was shocked at the lack of concern, including from police & health workers. 2/
When I was in Milan, I didn't understand how relaxed people were, and I felt like I was the crazy one. I kept trying to convey my disbelief and the severity of the situation to my colleagues, and how worried it made me for Italy – and Europe. 3/
Read 16 tweets
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François Heisbourg
@FHeisbourg
A back-of-the-enveloppe thread on the spread of #COVIDー19:

1) HUBEI province (ca 60 million people) has had close to 3000 deaths. It still has an active caseload of ca 20 K patients & some 130 new cases a day, & ca 30 daily deaths. So I expect up to 3500 deaths, assuming...1/9
...a winding down of the epidemic there by end March. If,stress IF, the rest of the world became like Hubei (0.8%of world population), the death toll could be of ca 400 K with a cumulative number of cases of ca 8 million.This possibly sets the outer bounds of a Covid pandemic 2/n
Of course, active measures in the world may prevent Hubei-scale outbreaks so this is unlikely to happen (conversely, late but tough measures in Hubei have also limited Covid's spread in that province).

2) GOOD NEWS though in rest of mainland China ( minus Hubei, HK,Macau): 3/n
Read 9 tweets
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Ali
@aliostad
Day 8 of aggregating information on what goes on with #COVIDー19 in Iran.

Picking up from yesterday:

As stated before:

Finally authorities are putting Mazandaran province on quarantine: only fuel and food trucks are allowed. This late, its effectiveness will be limited.

The same authorities have had argued for quarantine to be "non-scientific" and "from middle ages".

Read 38 tweets
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Ali
@aliostad
I gathered some alarming information on the rise of #COVID in Iran in this thread. I can see that it has been read by many hence increases my responsibility on what I share now.
As I stated before:

- I am not a trained reporter or journalist
- I am not based in Iran
- Not affiliated with any poilitical group, for or against the government
- Most of my information comes from the internet with occasional conversations with people in Iran
Today I shall try to gather information which I will share in the thread below.
Read 40 tweets
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Eddie Du
@Edourdoo
As coronavirus slams #Italy, paralysis and anxiety spread - Reuters reuters.com/article/us-chi…
As the economic shocks reverberate across Europe, Italians are still trying to get to grips with how a seemingly isolated case could balloon within days, to bring the eurozone's third-largest economy to the brink of recession.
Lombardy, the region around Italy's financial capital, Milan, is one of the richest and most productive in Europe.

Along with Veneto, the other main area hit by the coronavirus outbreak, it generates around a third of Italy's economic output.
Read 29 tweets

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