Thread by @NateBell4AR

Thread:
I hope you'll take time to read it, even though it's long.
"Why are they shutting everything down? I'm going to keep on living life as normal. That ain't nothing worse than flu. It doesn't scare me. It only has less than 3% fatality rate and much lower in USA."
1/?

I hear it daily.
I don't think many of my friends respond well to abstract numbers so I'm going to do a little local more personal math to help y'all understand why social distancing and flattening the curve are critical to avoiding catastrophe.
2/?

First of all, the fatality rate is low in USA mostly because so far, there are adequate resources available for treatment. Where that changes, mortality spikes exponentially.
Let's do some simple math together.
3/?

I live near Mena, AR. My local hospital has 65 beds. In a normal flu season, they'll have around 40 of them filled with patients ranging from heart issues, births, injuries etc. Our local service area covered by the hospital has around 30,000+- residents.
4/?

Now let's add #Covid19 and apply some stats. #Covid_19 #SARSCoV2 has a hospitalization rate of around 12%. Arguendo, let's assume only 40% of people in the service area contract the illness. That's 1440 people who need hospitalization with 25 available beds.
5/?

Make that only 10% of people getting #COVID, that's STILL 360 people needing to be hospitalized with 25 available beds.
What happens when there are no beds available? Triage. Those who are elderly or less likely to survive get treated last. Most who are untreated will die.
6/?

So lets talk about flattening the curve now. If the number of people needing hospitalization occurs over a longer period of time, more resources (hospital beds, ventilators etc) are available and the survival rate goes up dramatically.
7/?

If instead of 10% of population becoming ill within a week, it occurs over 2 months, it's manageable. If it occurs within a week, hundreds die.
Apply this data and math to YOUR community. The larger your city, the worse those numbers will look.
8/?

Go be smart. Save lives. It might be yours or the life of someone you love that you save.
“The prudent see danger and take refuge, but the simple keep going and pay the penalty.” Prov. 22:3
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